State of the Western Draw 2021
← 2020 · 2022 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2021 draws across 13 states: 5,628 hunt codes, 214,021 nonresident tags, 1,098,017 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Demand at a glance
| State · species | Codes | NR tags | 1st-choice apps | Apps / tag | Drawable at 0 pts | Undersubscribed | Median cut | Cut shift | Odds error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska · Moose | 47 | 1,075 | 24,557 | 22.8 | 15% | 4 | — | — | — |
| Alaska · Mountain Goat | 39 | 740 | 34,678 | 46.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Alaska · Bison | 6 | 161 | 55,902 | 347.2 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Alaska · Caribou | 6 | 365 | 14,920 | 40.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Alaska · Dall Sheep | 19 | 89 | 14,317 | 160.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Alaska · Brown Bear | 134 | 617 | 15,002 | 24.3 | 41% | 36 | — | — | — |
| Alaska · Musk Ox | 2 | 60 | 7,726 | 128.8 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 90 | 38,737 | 79,564 | 2.1 | 26% | 14 | — | — | — |
| California · Elk | 59 | 197 | 34,862 | 177.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Pronghorn | 17 | 155 | 20,446 | 131.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Bighorn Sheep | 8 | 19 | 12,993 | 683.8 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Colorado · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 978 | 28,183 | 88,828 | 3.2 | 38% | 241 | 1.0 | — | — |
| Colorado · Elk | 887 | 38,640 | 102,668 | 2.7 | 57% | 313 | 1.0 | — | — |
| Colorado · Pronghorn | 313 | 23,315 | 23,369 | 1.0 | 63% | 36 | 2.0 | — | — |
| Iowa · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 20 | 6,000 | 11,291 | 1.9 | 25% | 0 | 1.0 | — | — |
| Iowa · Wild Turkey | 21 | 2,298 | 2,019 | 0.9 | 67% | 14 | — | — | — |
| Kansas · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 25 | 22,192 | 30,862 | 1.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Kentucky · Elk | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 153 | 2,702 | 6,573 | 2.4 | 39% | 36 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Elk | 154 | 4,139 | 11,648 | 2.8 | 19% | 20 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Moose | 92 | 30 | 3,034 | 101.1 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 110 | 2,868 | 12,233 | 4.3 | 9% | 3 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Mountain Lion | 38 | 31 | 289 | 9.3 | 11% | 1 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 43 | 21 | 7,348 | 349.9 | 12% | 5 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 33 | 16 | 3,335 | 208.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Bison | 5 | 8 | 1,169 | 146.1 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Wild Turkey | 2 | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nebraska · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 2 | 370 | 1,103 | 3.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 146 | 992 | 17,114 | 17.3 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Elk | 91 | 376 | 14,859 | 39.5 | 3% | 5 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Pronghorn | 68 | 257 | 8,648 | 33.6 | 1% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Bighorn Sheep | 29 | 48 | 24,811 | 516.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 226 | 6,749 | 0 | 0.0 | 1% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · Pronghorn | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · Bighorn Sheep | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · Wild Turkey | 17 | 176 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Utah · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 276 | 0 | 28,196 | — | 59% | 21 | 1.0 | — | — |
| Utah · Elk | 185 | 0 | 19,856 | — | 45% | 0 | 19.0 | — | — |
| Utah · Pronghorn | 85 | 0 | 6,243 | — | 38% | 0 | 12.0 | — | — |
| Washington · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 470 | 7,722 | 124,345 | 16.1 | 8% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Washington · Elk | 369 | 3,698 | 160,446 | 43.4 | <1% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Wyoming · White-tailed / Mule Deer (Regular) | 84 | 9,922 | 25,317 | 2.6 | 40% | 14 | 1.0 | — | — |
| Wyoming · Elk (Regular) | 147 | 3,499 | 19,036 | 5.4 | 36% | 31 | 5.0 | — | — |
| Wyoming · Pronghorn (Regular) | 124 | 7,530 | 28,391 | 3.8 | 11% | 4 | 5.0 | — | — |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Alaska moose
Alaska mountain goat
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Alaska bison
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Alaska caribou
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Alaska dall sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Alaska brown bear
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Alaska musk ox
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
California white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- D6 Zone D6 Archery and General Sea... — 2039 of 9000 tags claimed
- D16 Zone D16 Archery and General Se... — 903 of 2700 tags claimed
- D9 Zone D9 Archery and General Sea... — 651 of 1800 tags claimed
- A1 Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck — 703 of 1751 tags claimed
- D14 Zone D14 Archery and General Se... — 1860 of 2700 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
California elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
California pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
California bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Colorado white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- DM066O4R deer male rifle season 4 GMU 66... — 25 pts, 5 tags, 254 apps
- DM044O3R deer male rifle season 3 GMU 44 — 25 pts, 5 tags, 241 apps
- DM044O4R deer male rifle season 4 GMU 44... — 25 pts, 3 tags, 192 apps
- DM053O4R deer male rifle season 4 GMU 53 — 25 pts, 2 tags, 68 apps
- DM201O4R deer male rifle season 4 GMU 201 — 25 pts, 1 tags, 47 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- DM020P5R deer male rifle private-land-on... — 16 of 850 tags claimed
- DE003P3R deer either-sex rifle private-l... — 330 of 900 tags claimed
- DM391P5R deer male rifle private-land-on... — 8 of 545 tags claimed
- DM069P2R deer male rifle private-land-on... — 26 of 540 tags claimed
- DE011P3R deer either-sex rifle private-l... — 253 of 700 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Colorado elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- EE201E1R elk either-sex rifle early seas... — 30 pts, 4 tags, 704 apps
- EM201O1M elk male muzzleloader season 1 ... — 30 pts, 1 tags, 121 apps
- EE002E1R elk either-sex rifle early seas... — 29 pts, 5 tags, 536 apps
- EE010E1R elk either-sex rifle early seas... — 29 pts, 5 tags, 472 apps
- EE201O1A elk either-sex archery season 1... — 29 pts, 1 tags, 214 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- EF011P5R elk female rifle private-land-o... — 216 of 1100 tags claimed
- EE011P1R elk either-sex rifle private-la... — 311 of 700 tags claimed
- EF003P5R elk female rifle private-land-o... — 323 of 700 tags claimed
- EF421P5R elk female rifle private-land-o... — 32 of 350 tags claimed
- EF104P5R elk female rifle private-land-o... — 1 of 300 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Colorado pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- AM201O1R pronghorn male rifle season 1 G... — 22 pts, 60 tags, 324 apps
- AM201O1A pronghorn male archery season 1... — 22 pts, 5 tags, 22 apps
- AM001O1M pronghorn male muzzleloader sea... — 20 pts, 5 tags, 25 apps
- AM048O1R pronghorn male rifle season 1 G... — 20 pts, 5 tags, 3 apps
- AM067O1R pronghorn male rifle season 1 G... — 19 pts, 8 tags, 34 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- AF110L1R pronghorn female rifle late sea... — 3 of 1000 tags claimed
- AF128P5R pronghorn female rifle private-... — 2 of 680 tags claimed
- AF120O1R pronghorn female rifle season 1... — 1 of 450 tags claimed
- AF112L1R pronghorn female rifle late sea... — 1 of 450 tags claimed
- AF003P5R pronghorn female rifle private-... — 1 of 250 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Iowa white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- Z5-BOW Zone 5 General any-deer + manda... — 4 pts, 560 tags, 1,497 apps
- Z6-BOW Zone 6 General any-deer + manda... — 4 pts, 280 tags, 684 apps
- Z4-BOW Zone 4 General any-deer + manda... — 3 pts, 448 tags, 1,139 apps
- Z9-BOW Zone 9 General any-deer + manda... — 2 pts, 308 tags, 584 apps
- Z7-BOW Zone 7 General any-deer + manda... — 2 pts, 126 tags, 299 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Iowa wild turkey
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- TML Statewide nonresident spring tu... — 20 of 150 tags claimed
- T6-S3 Zone 6 season 3 nonresident spr... — 61 of 165 tags claimed
- T6-S1 Zone 6 season 1 nonresident spr... — 62 of 165 tags claimed
- T6-S2 Zone 6 season 2 nonresident spr... — 67 of 165 tags claimed
- T4-S1 Zone 4 season 1 nonresident spr... — 172 of 262 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Kansas white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Kentucky elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- 595-00 Elk B License 595-00 — Antlerle... — 195 of 350 tags claimed
- 005-00 Elk B License 005-00 — Only val... — 98 of 250 tags claimed
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerle... — 478 of 600 tags claimed
- 210-03 Elk B License 210-03 — Antlerle... — 6 of 80 tags claimed
- 396-00 Elk B License 396-00 — Antlerle... — 22 of 60 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana moose
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana pronghorn
Montana mountain lion
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana mountain goat
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana bison
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Montana wild turkey
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Nebraska white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Texas white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Texas pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Texas bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Texas wild turkey
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Utah white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- DB1003 Premium LE Buck Deer - Henry Mtns — 26 pts, tags, 3,984 apps
- DB1004 Premium LE Buck Deer - Paunsaugunt — 24 pts, tags, 3,135 apps
- DB1019 Limited-entry Buck Deer - Fillm... — 24 pts, tags, 965 apps
- DB1001 Premium LE Buck Deer - Paunsaugunt — 24 pts, tags, 830 apps
- DB1006 Premium LE Buck Deer - Paunsaugunt — 24 pts, tags, 502 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Utah elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- EB3066 Limited-entry Bull Elk - San Ju... — 25 pts, tags, 2,040 apps
- EB3148 Limited-entry Bull Elk - Boulder — 25 pts, tags, 834 apps
- EB3042 Limited-entry Bull Elk - Fillmo... — 25 pts, tags, 651 apps
- EB3108 Multiseason LE Bull Elk - Manti... — 25 pts, tags, 122 apps
- EB3019 Limited-entry Bull Elk - San Ju... — 24 pts, tags, 871 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Utah pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- PB5046 LE Buck Pronghorn - San Rafael,... — 18 pts, tags, 1,063 apps
- PB5027 LE Buck Pronghorn - Book Cliffs... — 17 pts, tags, 543 apps
- PB5015 LE Buck Pronghorn - San Rafael,... — 14 pts, tags, 93 apps
- PB5049 LE Buck Pronghorn - Southwest D... — 13 pts, tags, 763 apps
- PB5035 LE Buck Pronghorn - La Sal, Pot... — 13 pts, tags, 126 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Washington white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Washington elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Wyoming white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
- 128-1 Antlered mule deer or any white... — 15 pts, 5 tags, 708 apps
- 101-1 Antlered deer — 15 pts, 2 tags, 174 apps
- 119-1 Antlered mule deer or any white... — 15 pts, 3 tags, 109 apps
- 130-1 Antlered mule deer or any white... — 15 pts, 1 tags, 94 apps
- 84-1 Antlered mule deer or any white... — 15 pts, 2 tags, 33 apps
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Wyoming elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
Wyoming pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2020
Prior draw not on file.
How to read these numbers
Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.
Not an application service
This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.