AmmoSight

California Deer Draw Odds

Enter your points, see your chance of drawing every deer tag in California — straight from the 2025 draw results.

Next application:opens Apr 15, closes Jun 2, 2027 (expected) Cost to apply:$588.01 ($588.01 if you miss) Tags (2025):25,552 Applicants:59,833

* Projected from this year's calendar; the agency sets next year's exact dates.

How the California draw works (30-second version)

Hybrid: preference + random.

Say a hunt area has 100 nonresident tags. 90 go to the applicants with the most preference points; if the last point level that draws has more applicants than tags left, that level is split at random. The other 10 are drawn purely at random from everyone who missed the points pass — so an applicant with zero points still has a shot.

Full mechanics, fees, and deadlines →

Chances are from the 2025 draw (the most recent) for a first-choice nonresident. "Points needed" = the cut in the last draw.

Simple view Odds at every point level
  • A1 Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck 1,945 tags · 505 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • A11 Archery Hunt In Zone X6A - Buck 50 tags · 329 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • A12 Archery Hunt In Zone X6B - Buck 90 tags · 204 applicants
    7% Point builder
  • A13 Archery Hunt In Zone X7A - Buck 45 tags · 78 applicants
    11% Point builder
  • A14 Archery Hunt In Zone X7B - Buck 25 tags · 98 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • A15 Archery Hunt In Zone X8 - Buck 40 tags · 81 applicants
    9% Point builder
  • A16 Archery Hunt In Zone X9A - Buck 30 tags · 267 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • A17 Archery Hunt In Zone X9B - Buck 210 tags · 26 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • A20 Archery Hunt In Zone X12 - Buck 40 tags · 237 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • A21 Anderson Flat Archery Buck 25 tags · 156 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • A24 Monterey Archery Either - Sex 100 tags · 177 applicants
    11% Point builder
  • A25 Lake Sonoma Archery Either - Sex 35 tags · 104 applicants
    4% Point builder
  • A26 Bass Hill Archery Buck 30 tags · 509 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • A27 Devil's Garden Archery Buck 10 tags · 175 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • A3 Archery Hunt In Zone X1 - Buck 100 tags · 289 applicants
    5% Point builder
  • A30 Covelo Archery Buck 40 tags · 299 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • A33 Fort Hunter Liggett Late Season Archery Either - Sex 50 tags · 148 applicants
    5% Point builder
  • A4 Archery Hunt In Zone X2 - Buck 10 tags · 40 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • A5 Archery Hunt In Zone X3A - Buck 40 tags · 110 applicants
    5% Point builder
  • A6 Archery Hunt In Zone X3B - Buck 70 tags · 82 applicants
    70% Real chance
  • A7 Archery Hunt In Zone X4 - Buck 120 tags · 239 applicants
    9% Point builder
  • A8 Archery Hunt In Zone X5A - Buck 10 tags · 33 applicants
    4% Point builder
  • A9 Archery Hunt In Zone X5B - Buck 5 tags · 74 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • C C Zones General Seasons - Buck 8,150 tags · 5,965 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • D12 Zone D12 Archery and General Seasons - Buck 950 tags · 1,078 applicants
    85% Likely draw
  • D14 Zone D14 Archery and General Seasons - Buck 3,000 tags · 2,139 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • D17 Zone D17 Archery and General Seasons - Buck 500 tags · 752 applicants
    29% Long shot
  • G1 Late Season Buck Hunt in Zone C4 - General Methods 2,710 tags · 3,857 applicants
    39% Long shot
  • G12 Gray Lodge Shotgun Either - Sex 30 tags · 148 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • G13 San Diego Antlerless - General Methods 300 tags · 505 applicants
    25% Long shot
  • G19 Sutter - Yuba Wildlife Areas Either - Sex - Shotgun/Archery/Crossbow 25 tags · 364 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • G21 Ventana Wilderness Buck - General Methods 25 tags · 114 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • G3 Goodale Buck - General Methods 25 tags · 3,854 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • G37 Anderson Flat Buck - General Methods 25 tags · 2,500 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • G38 X - 10 Late Season Buck - General Methods 300 tags · 235 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • G39 Round Valley Late Season Buck - General Methods 2 tags · 649 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • G40 D7 Late Season Buck Hunt 25 tags · 855 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • G6 Kern River Deer Herd Buck - General Methods 50 tags · 822 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • J1 Lake Sonoma Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 25 tags · 68 applicants
    22% Long shot
  • J10 Fort Hunter Liggett Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 30 tags · 170 applicants
    10% Point builder
  • J11 San Bernardino Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 40 tags · 120 applicants
    20% Long shot
  • J12 Round Valley Apprentice Buck - General Methods 10 tags · 530 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • J13 Los Angeles Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 40 tags · 60 applicants
    50% Real chance
  • J14 Riverside Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 30 tags · 35 applicants
    80% Likely draw
  • J15 Anderson Flat Apprentice Buck - General Methods 10 tags · 306 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • J16 Bucks Mountain - Nevada City Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 75 tags · 84 applicants
    85% Likely draw
  • J17 Blue Canyon Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 25 tags · 25 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • J18 Pacific - Grizzly Flat Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 75 tags · 102 applicants
    61% Real chance
  • J19 Zone X7A Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 25 tags · 56 applicants
    28% Long shot
  • J20 Zone X7B Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 20 tags · 48 applicants
    26% Long shot
  • J21 East Tehama Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 50 tags · 146 applicants
    21% Long shot
  • J3 Tehama Wildlife Area Apprentice Buck - General Methods 15 tags · 393 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • J4 Shasta - Trinity Apprentice Buck - General Methods 15 tags · 397 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • J8 Daugherty Hill Wildlife Area Apprentice Either - Sex - General Methods 15 tags · 104 applicants
    7% Point builder
  • J9 Little Dry Creek Apprentice Shotgun Either - Sex 5 tags · 25 applicants
    9% Point builder
  • M11 Northwestern California Muzzleloading Rifle Buck 20 tags · 711 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • M3 Doyle Muzzleloading Rifle Buck 20 tags · 564 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • M4 Horse Lake Muzzleloading Rifle Buck 10 tags · 51 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • M5 East Lassen Muzzleloading Rifle Buck 5 tags · 95 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • M6 San Diego Muzzleloading Rifle Either - Sex 80 tags · 75 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • M7 Ventura Muzzleloading Rifle Either - Sex 150 tags · 161 applicants
    90% Likely draw
  • M8 Bass Hill Muzzleloading Rifle Buck 20 tags · 161 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • M9 Devil's Garden Muzzleloading Rifle Buck 15 tags · 572 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • MA1 San Luis Obispo Muzzleloading Rifle/Archery Either - Sex 150 tags · 108 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • MA3 Santa Barbara Muzzleloading Rifle/Archery Buck 150 tags · 125 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • X1 Zone X1 General Season - Buck 760 tags · 2,884 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • X10 Zone X10 General Season - Buck 400 tags · 436 applicants
    88% Likely draw
  • X12 Zone X12 General Season - Buck 349 tags · 4,023 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • X2 Zone X2 General Season - Buck 189 tags · 1,310 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • X3A Zone X3A General Season - Buck 354 tags · 1,714 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • X3B Zone X3B General Season - Buck 499 tags · 1,266 applicants
    6% Point builder
  • X4 Zone X4 General Season - Buck 479 tags · 1,319 applicants
    5% Point builder
  • X5A Zone X5A General Season - Buck 75 tags · 552 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • X5B Zone X5B General Season - Buck 50 tags · 2,590 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • X6A Zone X6A General Season - Buck 329 tags · 2,601 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • X6B Zone X6B General Season - Buck 309 tags · 1,046 applicants
    4% Point builder
  • X7A Zone X7A General Season - Buck 229 tags · 1,059 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • X7B Zone X7B General Season - Buck 134 tags · 528 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • X8 Zone X8 General Season - Buck 210 tags · 917 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • X9A Zone X9A General Season - Buck 269 tags · 3,215 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • X9B Zone X9B General Season - Buck 230 tags · 463 applicants
    9% Point builder
  • X9C Zone X9C General Season - Buck 325 tags · 521 applicants
    14% Point builder
What these columns mean
Your odds
—
the share of applicants at your point level who drew this tag in the 2025 draw. Not a forecast: quotas and demand move every year.
The badge
—
plain language for that number. Likely draw 75% or better · Real chance 40%+ · Long shot 15%+ · Point builder below that, so you are applying mainly to bank a point · Undersubscribed means fewer first-choice applicants than tags, so everyone who applied drew.
Points needed
—
the lowest point total that still got a tag in the 2025 draw, and how that cut has moved since the earliest draw we hold.
Tags / applicants
—
tags on offer and first-choice applicants for them, as the agency published them. Under five tags we print counts instead of a percentage, because one applicant either way swings it.
9 hunts not offered in 2025 are hidden — show discontinued hunts.

Browse by hunt area

Each area has its own page: where it is on the map, how much of it is public land, what the hunters who went there killed last season, and every license type you can apply for inside it.

C1 C1 30% success · 25% public X1 X1 46% success · 63% public C2 C2 30% success · 50% public X2 X2 47% success · 76% public C3 C3 30% success · 20% public X3A X3A 63% success · 53% public X3B X3B 35% success · 63% public C4 C4 30% success · 38% public X4 X4 37% success · 63% public X5A X5A 68% success · 73% public X5B X5B 68% success · 74% public D6 D6 11% success · 54% public X6A X6A 77% success · 50% public X6B X6B 48% success · 77% public X7A X7A 23% success · 59% public X7B X7B 25% success · 66% public X8 X8 24% success · 90% public D9 D9 17% success · 59% public X9A X9A 63% success · 97% public X9B X9B 29% success · 98% public X9C X9C 24% success · 90% public X10 X10 15% success · 95% public D12 D12 13% success · 71% public X12 X12 59% success · 87% public D14 D14 17% success · 59% public D16 D16 11% success · 51% public D17 D17 12% success · 63% public
Spot a data error on this page? Tell us.

Every report is checked against the agency source before we change anything.

How to read these numbers

Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.

Not an application service

This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.