State of the Big-Game Draw 2017
← 2016 · 2018 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2017 draws across 2 states: 770 hunt codes, 7,701 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 174,275 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), Nebraska (latest 2026), Nevada (latest 2025), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 84 | 32,053* | 75,661 | — | 18% | 8 | — | — | — |
| California · Elk | 65 | 311* | 30,253 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Pronghorn | 17 | 245* | 18,424 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Bighorn Sheep | 7 | 17* | 11,124 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 139 | 1,471 | 5,687 | 3.9 | 49% | 47 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Elk | 174 | 3,660 | 11,655 | 3.2 | 35% | 28 | — | — | 3% |
| Montana · Moose | 89 | 28 | 3,149 | 112.5 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 112 | 2,497 | 6,771 | 2.7 | 24% | 16 | — | — | 6% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 43 | 26 | 7,885 | 303.3 | 16% | 5 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 40 | 19 | 3,666 | 192.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
* Tags shared by residents and nonresidents in one draw, so there is no nonresident quota to count and no apps-per-tag ratio. "Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
California Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- G39 Round Valley Late Season Buck… — 1,042 applicants for 1 tag
- G3 Goodale Buck - General Methods — 4,142 applicants for 23 tags
- G37 Anderson Flat Buck - General… — 2,578 applicants for 23 tags
- X5B Zone X5B General Season - Buck — 2,812 applicants for 45 tags
- M9 Devil's Garden Muzzleloading Rifle… — 814 applicants for 14 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- D6 Zone D6 Archery and General… — 2,298 first-choice applicants for 9,000 tags
- D9 Zone D9 Archery and General… — 696 first-choice applicants for 1,800 tags
- A1 Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck — 677 first-choice applicants for 1,751 tags
- C C Zones General Seasons - Buck — 6,687 first-choice applicants for 7,335 tags
- A31 Los Angeles Archery Either - sex — 512 first-choice applicants for 900 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Prior draw not on file.
California Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 359 Grizzly Island Period 10 - General… — 2,294 applicants for 2 tags
- 461 East Park Reservoir - General… — 964 applicants for 1 tag
- 332 Lake Pillsbury - General Methods… — 886 applicants for 1 tag
- 406 Cache Creek Period 1 - General… — 785 applicants for 1 tag
- 362 Grizzly Island Period 12 - General… — 1,380 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Prior draw not on file.
California Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 710 Zone 1 - Mount Dome - General… — 386 applicants for 1 tag
- 740 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 1 - General… — 4,103 applicants for 27 tags
- 760 Zone 6 - Surprise Valley - General… — 1,108 applicants for 8 tags
- 742 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 2 - General… — 2,744 applicants for 27 tags
- 745 Zone 4 - Lassen - Archery - Buck — 404 applicants for 4 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Prior draw not on file.
California Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 503 Zone 3 - Clark and Kingston… — 1,418 applicants for 1 tag
- 505 Zone 5 - San Gorgonio Wilderness… — 1,349 applicants for 1 tag
- 507 Zone 7 - White Mountains - General… — 1,837 applicants for 2 tags
- 501 Zone 1 - Marble and Clipper… — 2,652 applicants for 3 tags
- 509 Zone 9 - Cady Mountains - General… — 2,191 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Prior draw not on file.
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 1,012 applicants for 4 tags
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 196 applicants for 2 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 269 applicants for 3 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 159 applicants for 3 tags
- 652-50 Deer Permit 652-50 — Antlered Buck… — 300 applicants for 10 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 23 first-choice applicants for 200 tags
- 299-00 Deer B License 299-00 — 1 first-choice applicant for 40 tags
- 597-00 Deer B License 597-00 — 12 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 495-00 Deer B License 495-00 — 14 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 405-00 Deer B License 405-00 — Antlerless… — 20 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 145 applicants for 1 tag
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 280 applicants for 3 tags
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 1,035 applicants for 13 tags
- 690-21 Elk Permit 690-21 — Either-sex Elk — 143 applicants for 3 tags
- 410-20 Elk Permit 410-20 — Either-sex Elk — 625 applicants for 15 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerless… — 287 first-choice applicants for 480 tags
- 311-00 Elk B License 311-00 — 5 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 398-00 Elk B License 398-00 — Antlerless… — 60 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 699-00 Elk B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 11 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 411-00 Elk B License 411-00 — Antlerless… — 22 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 331-50 Moose License 331-50 — Antlered… — 1,048 applicants for 1 tag
- 102-50 Moose License 102-50 — Antlered… — 388 applicants for 1 tag
- 323-50 Moose License 323-50 — Antlered… — 247 applicants for 1 tag
- 380-50 Moose License 380-50 — Antlered… — 151 applicants for 1 tag
- 101-50 Moose License 101-50 — Antlered… — 138 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 550-20 Antelope License 550-20… — 5 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 590-30 Antelope B License 590-30… — 4 first-choice applicants for 25 tags
- 450-30 Antelope B License 450-30… — 9 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 550-30 Antelope B License 550-30… — 0 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 370-30 Antelope B License 370-30 — 0 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 482-20 Bighorn Sheep License 482-20 — Any… — 2,383 applicants for 2 tags
- 680-20 Bighorn Sheep License 680-20 — Any… — 2,324 applicants for 2 tags
- 622-20 Bighorn Sheep License 622-20 — 704 applicants for 1 tag
- 250-20 Bighorn Sheep License 250-20 — Any… — 477 applicants for 1 tag
- 422-20 Bighorn Sheep License 422-20 — Any… — 399 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 361-20 Mountain Goat License 361-20… — 822 applicants for 1 tag
- 313-20 Mountain Goat License 313-20… — 791 applicants for 3 tags
- 331-20 Mountain Goat License 331-20… — 245 applicants for 1 tag
- 314-20 Mountain Goat License 314-20… — 368 applicants for 2 tags
- 323-20 Mountain Goat License 323-20… — 548 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2016
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications.