AmmoSight

California Elk Draw Odds

Enter your points, see your chance of drawing every elk tag in California — straight from the 2025 draw results.

Next application:opens Apr 15, closes Jun 2, 2027 (expected) Cost to apply:$227.94 ($227.94 if you miss) Tags (2025):408 Nonresident share:capped at 1 Applicants:30,567

* Projected from this year's calendar; the agency sets next year's exact dates.

How the California draw works (30-second version)

Hybrid: preference + random.

Say a hunt area has 100 nonresident tags. 75 go to the applicants with the most preference points; if the last point level that draws has more applicants than tags left, that level is split at random. The other 25 are drawn purely at random from everyone who missed the points pass — so an applicant with zero points still has a shot.

Full mechanics, fees, and deadlines →

Chances are from the 2025 draw (the most recent) for a first-choice nonresident. "Points needed" = the cut in the last draw.

Simple view Odds at every point level
  • 300 Siskiyou - General Methods - Bull 20 tags · 839 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 301 Marble Mountains - General Methods - Antlerless 8 tags · 210 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 302 Marble Mountains - General Methods - Bull 34 tags · 2,685 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 303 Marble Mountains - Muzzleloader/Archery - Either - Sex 10 tags · 334 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 304 Northeastern - General Methods - Antlerless 10 tags · 343 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 305 Northeastern - General Methods - Bull 15 tags · 3,463 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 323 Whitney Period 2 - General Methods - Bull 1 tags · 239 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 324 Whitney Period 3 - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 84 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • 328 Mendocino - General Methods - Bull 2 tags · 329 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 329 Bear Valley - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 62 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 330 Bear Valley - General Methods - Bull 2 tags · 352 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 337 Lone Pine Period 1 - Archery - Antlerless 1 tags · 56 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 355 Northwestern - General Methods - Bull 25 tags · 1,139 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 357 Grizzly Island Period 8 - General Methods - Spike Bull 6 tags · 255 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 358 Grizzly Island Period 9 - General Methods - Antlerless 4 tags · 307 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 359 Grizzly Island Period 10 - General Methods - Bull 4 tags · 2,402 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 360 Grizzly Island Period 11 - General Methods - Antlerless 4 tags · 237 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 362 Grizzly Island Period 12 - General Methods - Bull 4 tags · 711 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 363 Grizzly Island Period 13 - General Methods - Antlerless 4 tags · 185 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 365 Goodale Period 2 - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 61 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 366 Goodale Period 3 - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 59 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 367 Independence Period 1 - Muzzleloader - Bull 1 tags · 211 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 368 Independence Period 2 - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 94 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • 369 Independence Period 2 - General Methods - Bull 1 tags · 533 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 370 Independence Period 3 - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 105 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 373 Goodale Period 1 - General Methods - Bull 1 tags · 337 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 374 Northwestern - General Methods - Antlerless 15 tags · 166 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 375 Central Coast - General Methods - Antlerless 10 tags · 83 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 376 Central Coast - General Methods - Bull 10 tags · 526 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 377 Gabilan - General Methods - Antlerless 6 tags · 62 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 378 Gabilan - General Methods - Bull 10 tags · 320 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 379 Tehachapi - General Methods - Antlerless 10 tags · 97 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 380 Tehachapi - General Methods - Bull 10 tags · 368 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 381 Grizzly Island Period 13 - General Methods - Bull 3 tags · 703 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 382 Central Coast - Archery - Antlerless 5 tags · 30 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • 383 Central Coast - Archery - Bull 5 tags · 154 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 384 Siskiyou - Archery - Bull 10 tags · 153 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • 385 La Panza - Archery - Bull 5 tags · 98 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • 386 La Panza - Archery - Antlerless 5 tags · 16 applicants
    6% Point builder
  • 387 Lake Pillsbury Period 1 - General Methods - Antlerless 4 tags · 107 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 388 Lake Pillsbury Period 2 - General Methods - Antlerless 2 tags · 33 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • 389 Lake Pillsbury Period 3 - General Methods - Antlerless 2 tags · 73 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • 390 Lake Pillsbury Period 4 - General Methods - Bull 2 tags · 643 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 391 Lake Pillsbury Period 5 - General Methods - Bull 2 tags · 386 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 401 Siskiyou - General Methods - Antlerless 30 tags · 392 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 406 Cache Creek Period 1 - General Methods - Bull 2 tags · 799 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 408 Marble Mountains Apprentice - General Methods - Either - Sex 4 tags · 266 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 409 Northeastern Apprentice - General Methods - Either - Sex 2 tags · 287 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 411 Northeastern - Archery - Either - Sex 10 tags · 515 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 416 Cache Creek Period 2 - General Methods - Antlerless 2 tags · 176 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 417 La Panza Period 1 - General Methods - Antlerless 5 tags · 91 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • 418 La Panza Period 2 - General Methods - Antlerless 6 tags · 145 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 419 La Panza Period 1 - General Methods - Bull 6 tags · 485 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 420 La Panza Period 2 - General Methods - Bull 6 tags · 371 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 422 Owens Valley Multiple Zone - Archery - Bull 3 tags · 735 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 433 Grizzly Island Period 1 - General Methods - Antlerless 2 tags · 300 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 437 Grizzly Island Period 2 - General Methods - Spike Bull 2 tags · 176 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 447 Fort Hunter Liggett Period 3 - General Methods - Bull 8 tags · 1,533 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 448 Fort Hunter Liggett Period 2 - General Methods - Antlerless 6 tags · 288 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 449 Fort Hunter Liggett - Archery - Either - Sex 6 tags · 538 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 450 Fort Hunter Liggett - Archery - Antlerless 8 tags · 103 applicants
    2% Point builder
  • 461 East Park Reservoir - General Methods - Bull 2 tags · 812 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 463 East Park Reservoir - General Methods - Antlerless 2 tags · 102 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 464 La Panza Period 1 Apprentice - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 40 applicants
    3% Point builder
  • 466 Grizzly Island Apprentice - Period 1 - General Methods - Antlerless 2 tags · 129 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 469 Grizzly Island Apprentice - Period 2 - General Methods - Spike Bull 2 tags · 144 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 471 Fort Hunter Liggett Apprentice - General Methods - Antlerless 1 tags · 82 applicants
    1% Point builder
  • 472 Fort Hunter Liggett Apprentice - General Methods - Bull 1 tags · 339 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 483 Northwestern - General Methods - Either - Sex 3 tags · 327 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 484 Cache Creek Apprentice - General Methods - Bull 1 tags · 186 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 486 Lone Pine Period 2 - General Methods - Bull 1 tags · 598 applicants
    <1% Point builder
  • 497 San Luis Reservoir - General Methods - Either Sex 5 tags · 958 applicants
    <1% Point builder
What these columns mean
Your odds
—
the share of applicants at your point level who drew this tag in the 2025 draw. Not a forecast: quotas and demand move every year.
The badge
—
plain language for that number. Likely draw 75% or better · Real chance 40%+ · Long shot 15%+ · Point builder below that, so you are applying mainly to bank a point · Undersubscribed means fewer first-choice applicants than tags, so everyone who applied drew.
Points needed
—
the lowest point total that still got a tag in the 2025 draw, and how that cut has moved since the earliest draw we hold.
Tags / applicants
—
tags on offer and first-choice applicants for them, as the agency published them. Under five tags we print counts instead of a percentage, because one applicant either way swings it.
19 hunts not offered in 2025 are hidden — show discontinued hunts.

Browse by hunt area

Each area has its own page: where it is on the map, how much of it is public land, what the hunters who went there killed last season, and every license type you can apply for inside it.

Bear Valley Bear Valley Tule Elk Hunt 16% public Cache Creek Cache Creek Tule Elk Hunt 60% public Central Coast Central Coast Tule Elk Hunt 33% public East Park Reservoir East Park Reservoir Tule Elk Hunt 44% public Fort Hunter Liggett Fort Hunter Liggett Tule Elk Hunt 0% public Gabilan Gabilan Tule Elk Hunt 14% public Goodale Goodale - Owens Valley Tule Elk Hunt 98% public Grizzly Island Grizzly Island Tule Elk Hunt 99% public Independence Independence - Owens Valley Tule Elk Hunt 99% public Lake Pillsbury Lake Pillsbury Tule Elk Hunt 79% public La Panza La Panza Tule Elk Hunt 33% public Lone Pine Lone Pine - Owens Valley Tule Elk Hunt 98% public Marble Mountains Marble Mountains Roosevelt Elk Hunt 67% public Mendocino Mendocino Roosevelt/Tule Elk Hunt 26% public Northeastern Northeastern Rocky Mountain Elk Hunt 57% public Northwestern Northwestern Roosevelt Elk Hunt 36% public Owens Valley Multiple Zone Owens Valley Multiple Zone Elk Hunt (spans Bishop/Independence/Goodale/Lone Pine zones) San Luis Reservoir San Luis Reservoir Tule Elk Hunt 8% public Siskiyou Siskiyou Roosevelt Elk Hunt 48% public Tehachapi Tehachapi Rocky Mountain Elk Hunt 34% public West Tinemaha West Tinemaha - Owens Valley Tule Elk Hunt 97% public Whitney Whitney - Owens Valley Tule Elk Hunt 99% public
Spot a data error on this page? Tell us.

Every report is checked against the agency source before we change anything.

How to read these numbers

Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.

Not an application service

This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.