State of the Big-Game Draw 2018
← 2017 · 2019 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2018 draws across 4 states: 1,088 hunt codes, 9,901 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 220,419 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 86 | 24,336* | 72,038 | — | 20% | 11 | — | — | — |
| California · Elk | 65 | 311* | 30,371 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Pronghorn | 17 | 245* | 18,397 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Bighorn Sheep | 7 | 17* | 11,440 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 153 | 1,875 | 5,932 | 3.2 | 54% | 61 | — | — | 3% |
| Montana · Elk | 156 | 3,085 | 11,193 | 3.6 | 28% | 23 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Moose | 90 | 28 | 3,001 | 107.2 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 110 | 2,560 | 7,672 | 3.0 | 25% | 12 | — | — | 6% |
| Montana · Mountain Lion | 24 | 29 | 370 | 12.8 | 8% | 1 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 44 | 25 | 7,702 | 308.1 | 14% | 5 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 34 | 16 | 3,449 | 215.6 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Bison | 5 | 8 | 1,181 | 147.6 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Wild Turkey | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nebraska · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 3 | 370 | 11 | 0.0 | 33% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 147 | 1,115 | 13,111 | 11.8 | <1% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Elk | 63 | 439 | 10,373 | 23.6 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Pronghorn | 58 | 314 | 5,610 | 17.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Bighorn Sheep | 24 | 36 | 18,551 | 515.3 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
* Tags shared by residents and nonresidents in one draw, so there is no nonresident quota to count and no apps-per-tag ratio. "Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
California Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- G39 Round Valley Late Season Buck… — 751 applicants for 1 tag
- G3 Goodale Buck - General Methods — 4,257 applicants for 23 tags
- G37 Anderson Flat Buck - General… — 2,339 applicants for 23 tags
- M9 Devil's Garden Muzzleloading Rifle… — 930 applicants for 14 tags
- X5B Zone X5B General Season - Buck — 2,733 applicants for 45 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- A1 Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck — 625 first-choice applicants for 1,751 tags
- D9 Zone D9 Archery and General… — 725 first-choice applicants for 1,800 tags
- C C Zones General Seasons - Buck — 6,791 first-choice applicants for 7,335 tags
- A31 Los Angeles Archery Either - sex — 465 first-choice applicants for 900 tags
- A22 San Diego Archery Either - Sex — 525 first-choice applicants for 900 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 359 Grizzly Island Period 10 - General… — 2,673 applicants for 2 tags
- 332 Lake Pillsbury - General Methods… — 965 applicants for 1 tag
- 461 East Park Reservoir - General… — 925 applicants for 1 tag
- 406 Cache Creek Period 1 - General… — 854 applicants for 1 tag
- 362 Grizzly Island Period 12 - General… — 1,034 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 710 Zone 1 - Mount Dome - General… — 271 applicants for 1 tag
- 740 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 1 - General… — 4,226 applicants for 27 tags
- 760 Zone 6 - Surprise Valley - General… — 1,187 applicants for 8 tags
- 745 Zone 4 - Lassen - Archery - Buck — 503 applicants for 4 tags
- 742 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 2 - General… — 2,743 applicants for 27 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 505 Zone 5 - San Gorgonio Wilderness… — 1,545 applicants for 1 tag
- 503 Zone 3 - Clark and Kingston… — 1,078 applicants for 1 tag
- 507 Zone 7 - White Mountains - General… — 1,945 applicants for 2 tags
- 501 Zone 1 - Marble and Clipper… — 2,799 applicants for 3 tags
- 509 Zone 9 - Cady Mountains - General… — 2,172 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
No code's cut moved by a full point.
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 973 applicants for 4 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 166 applicants for 1 tag
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 163 applicants for 2 tags
- 250-50 Deer Permit 250-50 — Antlered Buck… — 87 applicants for 2 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 114 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 28 first-choice applicants for 250 tags
- 598-00 Deer B License 598-00 — 59 first-choice applicants for 120 tags
- 597-00 Deer B License 597-00 — 28 first-choice applicants for 80 tags
- 699-00 Deer B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 52 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 299-00 Deer B License 299-00 — 2 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 700-20 Elk Permit 700-20 — Either-sex Elk — 457 applicants for 2 tags
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 101 applicants for 1 tag
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 268 applicants for 3 tags
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 898 applicants for 13 tags
- 690-21 Elk Permit 690-21 — Either-sex Elk — 158 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerless… — 349 first-choice applicants for 480 tags
- 311-00 Elk B License 311-00 — 12 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 399-01-EP Elk Permit 399-01-EP — 3 first-choice applicants for 60 tags
- 699-00 Elk B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 22 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 411-00 Elk B License 411-00 — Antlerless… — 15 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 300-50 Moose License 300-50 — Antlered… — 863 applicants for 1 tag
- 125-50 Moose License 125-50 — Antlered… — 276 applicants for 1 tag
- 122-50 Moose License 122-50 — Antlered… — 259 applicants for 1 tag
- 323-50 Moose License 323-50 — Antlered… — 216 applicants for 1 tag
- 100-50 Moose License 100-50 — Antlered… — 161 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 550-20 Antelope License 550-20… — 18 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 450-30 Antelope B License 450-30… — 9 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 550-30 Antelope B License 550-30… — 4 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 470-30 Antelope B License 470-30 — 6 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 540-30 Antelope B License 540-30… — 2 first-choice applicants for 15 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Lion
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 122-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 33 applicants for 1 tag
- 102-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 23 applicants for 1 tag
- 103-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 22 applicants for 1 tag
- 121-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 39 applicants for 2 tags
- 290-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 19 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 680-20 Bighorn Sheep License 680-20 — Any… — 2,209 applicants for 2 tags
- 482-20 Bighorn Sheep License 482-20 — Any… — 2,117 applicants for 2 tags
- 622-20 Bighorn Sheep License 622-20 — 1,162 applicants for 2 tags
- 250-60 Bighorn Sheep License 250-60… — 400 applicants for 1 tag
- 424-20 Bighorn Sheep License 424-20 — Any… — 371 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 393-20 Mountain Goat License 393-20… — 824 applicants for 1 tag
- 313-20 Mountain Goat License 313-20… — 501 applicants for 1 tag
- 320-20 Mountain Goat License 320-20… — 240 applicants for 1 tag
- 312-20 Mountain Goat License 312-20… — 186 applicants for 1 tag
- 314-20 Mountain Goat License 314-20… — 484 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bison
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Random draw — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana Turkey
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Random draw — no point cut to publish.
- 445-20 Spring Turkey License 445-20… — 17 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nebraska Deer
Hardest Tags
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 1332-221.222.223-1031 Mule deer antlered — 1,388 applicants for 2 tags
- 1332-081-1211 Mule deer antlered — 886 applicants for 3 tags
- 1372-081-1121 Mule deer antlered — 252 applicants for 2 tags
- 1332-194.196-1105 Mule deer antlered — 591 applicants for 5 tags
- 1332-241.242.243.244.245-1005 Mule deer antlered — 1,179 applicants for 10 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 4251-161.162.163.164.171.172.173-0917 Elk antlered — 1,425 applicants for 1 tag
- 4261-111.112.113.114.115-0825 Elk antlered — 1,031 applicants for 4 tags
- 4251-111.112.113.114.115-1106 Elk antlered — 1,624 applicants for 10 tags
- 4261-221.222.223-0825 Elk antlered — 487 applicants for 3 tags
- 4261-231-0825 Elk antlered — 243 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 2251-033-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 652 applicants for 3 tags
- 2251-076.077.079.081.091-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 842 applicants for 7 tags
- 2251-021.022-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 528 applicants for 6 tags
- 2261-033-0801 Antelope horns longer than ears — 74 applicants for 1 tag
- 2251-011-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 361 applicants for 8 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 8251-032-0901 California bighorn sheep — 6,148 applicants for 2 tags
- 3251-263-1120 Nelson (desert) bighorn sheep — 1,413 applicants for 1 tag
- 8251-012-0901 California bighorn sheep — 994 applicants for 1 tag
- 3251-268-1120 Nelson (desert) bighorn sheep — 3,657 applicants for 4 tags
- 8251-034-0901 California bighorn sheep — 802 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications. How we compute these.