State of the Western Draw 2018
← 2017 · 2019 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2018 draws across 4 states: 1,088 hunt codes, 34,661 nonresident tags, 220,419 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Demand at a glance
| State · species | Codes | NR tags | 1st-choice apps | Apps / tag | Drawable at 0 pts | Undersubscribed | Median cut | Cut shift | Odds error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 86 | 24,336 | 72,038 | 3.0 | 20% | 11 | — | — | 4% |
| California · Elk | 65 | 219 | 30,371 | 138.7 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| California · Pronghorn | 17 | 185 | 18,397 | 99.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| California · Bighorn Sheep | 7 | 10 | 11,440 | 1144.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 153 | 1,875 | 5,932 | 3.2 | 54% | 57 | — | — | 3% |
| Montana · Elk | 156 | 3,085 | 11,193 | 3.6 | 28% | 23 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Moose | 90 | 32 | 3,001 | 93.8 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 110 | 2,560 | 7,672 | 3.0 | 25% | 15 | — | — | 6% |
| Montana · Mountain Lion | 24 | 31 | 370 | 11.9 | 8% | 1 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 44 | 28 | 7,702 | 275.1 | 14% | 6 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 34 | 17 | 3,449 | 202.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Bison | 5 | 8 | 1,181 | 147.6 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Wild Turkey | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nebraska · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 3 | 370 | 11 | 0.0 | 33% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 147 | 1,115 | 13,111 | 11.8 | <1% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Elk | 63 | 439 | 10,373 | 23.6 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Pronghorn | 58 | 314 | 5,610 | 17.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Bighorn Sheep | 24 | 36 | 18,551 | 515.3 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
California white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- A1 Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck — 625 of 1751 tags claimed
- D9 Zone D9 Archery and General Sea... — 725 of 1800 tags claimed
- C C Zones General Seasons - Buck — 6791 of 7335 tags claimed
- A31 Los Angeles Archery Either - sex — 465 of 900 tags claimed
- A22 San Diego Archery Either - Sex — 525 of 900 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
California elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
California pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
California bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerle... — 349 of 480 tags claimed
- 311-00 Elk B License 311-00 — 12 of 100 tags claimed
- 399-01-EP Elk Permit 399-01-EP — 3 of 60 tags claimed
- 699-00 Elk B License 699-00 — Antlerle... — 22 of 50 tags claimed
- 411-00 Elk B License 411-00 — Antlerle... — 15 of 40 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana moose
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- 560-30 Antelope B License 560-30 — Doe... — 3 of 30 tags claimed
- 550-20 Antelope License 550-20 — Eithe... — 18 of 40 tags claimed
- 450-30 Antelope B License 450-30 — Doe... — 9 of 30 tags claimed
- 550-30 Antelope B License 550-30 — Doe... — 4 of 20 tags claimed
- 470-30 Antelope B License 470-30 — 6 of 20 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana mountain lion
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana mountain goat
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana bison
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Montana wild turkey
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nebraska white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
Nevada bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2017
Prior draw not on file.
How to read these numbers
Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.
Not an application service
This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.