State of the Montana Draw 2015
← 2014 · 2016 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2015 draws in Montana: 547 hunt codes, 6,302 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 32,942 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), California (latest 2025), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), Nebraska (latest 2026), Nevada (latest 2025), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 101 | 961 | 4,013 | 4.2 | 45% | 39 | — | — | 3% |
| Montana · Elk | 158 | 3,339 | 9,788 | 2.9 | 26% | 23 | — | — | 8% |
| Montana · Moose | 92 | 29 | 2,978 | 102.7 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 112 | 1,932 | 4,975 | 2.6 | 21% | 9 | — | — | 8% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 45 | 20 | 7,676 | 383.8 | 13% | 5 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 39 | 21 | 3,512 | 167.2 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 713 applicants for 4 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 262 applicants for 2 tags
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 137 applicants for 2 tags
- 652-50 Deer Permit 652-50 — Antlered Buck… — 228 applicants for 5 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 133 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 77 first-choice applicants for 150 tags
- 703-02 Deer B License 703-02 — 63 first-choice applicants for 90 tags
- 444-00 Deer B License 444-00 — Antlerless… — 15 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 403-00 Deer B License 403-00 — Antlerless… — 0 first-choice applicants for 17 tags
- 124-00 Deer B License 124-00 — Antlerless… — 7 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2014
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 112 applicants for 1 tag
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 1,004 applicants for 12 tags
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 178 applicants for 3 tags
- 410-20 Elk Permit 410-20 — Either-sex Elk — 441 applicants for 10 tags
- 622-20 Elk Permit 622-20 — Either-sex Elk — 123 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerless… — 151 first-choice applicants for 450 tags
- 442-00 Elk B License 442-00 — Antlerless… — 10 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 900-00 Elk B License 900-00 — 81 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 298-00 Elk B License 298-00 — 6 first-choice applicants for 25 tags
- 315-01 Elk B License 315-01 — Antlerless… — 22 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2014
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 300-50 Moose License 300-50 — Antlered… — 1,072 applicants for 1 tag
- 101-50 Moose License 101-50 — Antlered… — 244 applicants for 1 tag
- 380-50 Moose License 380-50 — Antlered… — 237 applicants for 1 tag
- 494-20 Moose License 494-20 — Antlered… — 211 applicants for 1 tag
- 122-50 Moose License 122-50 — Antlered… — 133 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2014
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 540-20 Antelope License 540-20… — 4 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 370-30 Antelope B License 370-30 — 0 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
- 388-30 Antelope B License 388-30… — 0 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
- 540-30 Antelope B License 540-30… — 0 first-choice applicants for 7 tags
- 500-20 Antelope License 500-20… — 46 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2014
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 680-20 Bighorn Sheep License 680-20 — Any… — 3,299 applicants for 2 tags
- 622-20 Bighorn Sheep License 622-20 — 940 applicants for 1 tag
- 482-20 Bighorn Sheep License 482-20 — Any… — 1,361 applicants for 2 tags
- 210-20 Bighorn Sheep License 210-20 — Any… — 382 applicants for 1 tag
- 123-20 Bighorn Sheep License 123-20 — Any… — 627 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2014
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 361-20 Mountain Goat License 361-20… — 599 applicants for 1 tag
- 314-20 Mountain Goat License 314-20… — 784 applicants for 3 tags
- 313-20 Mountain Goat License 313-20… — 707 applicants for 4 tags
- 328-20 Mountain Goat License 328-20 — 160 applicants for 1 tag
- 100-20 Mountain Goat License 100-20 — Any… — 152 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2014
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications.