State of the Big-Game Draw 2020
← 2019 · 2021 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2020 draws across 5 states: 1,315 hunt codes, 11,621 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 247,721 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 87 | 27,077* | 78,089 | — | 23% | 11 | — | — | — |
| California · Elk | 59 | 281* | 35,068 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Pronghorn | 17 | 245* | 21,057 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Bighorn Sheep | 8 | 27* | 13,202 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 153 | 2,427 | 5,140 | 2.1 | 44% | 50 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Elk | 154 | 4,181 | 10,515 | 2.5 | 25% | 23 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Moose | 93 | 29 | 2,875 | 99.1 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 110 | 2,822 | 8,818 | 3.1 | 22% | 11 | — | — | 9% |
| Montana · Mountain Lion | 37 | 29 | 271 | 9.3 | 11% | 1 | — | — | 13% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 43 | 21 | 7,220 | 343.8 | 14% | 5 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 33 | 15 | 3,237 | 215.8 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Bison | 5 | 8 | 1,103 | 137.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Wild Turkey | 2 | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | 13% |
| Nebraska · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 3 | 370 | 1,240 | 3.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | 6% |
| Nevada · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 145 | 987 | 16,153 | 16.4 | <1% | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Elk | 65 | 381 | 13,270 | 34.8 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Pronghorn | 59 | 300 | 7,823 | 26.1 | 2% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Bighorn Sheep | 31 | 47 | 22,628 | 481.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 190 | — | — | — | 2% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · Pronghorn | 5 | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · Bighorn Sheep | 1 | — | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
| Texas · Wild Turkey | 15 | — | — | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
* Tags shared by residents and nonresidents in one draw, so there is no nonresident quota to count and no apps-per-tag ratio. "Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
California Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- G39 Round Valley Late Season Buck… — 631 applicants for 1 tag
- G3 Goodale Buck - General Methods — 4,728 applicants for 23 tags
- G37 Anderson Flat Buck - General… — 2,540 applicants for 23 tags
- X5B Zone X5B General Season - Buck — 2,976 applicants for 45 tags
- M9 Devil's Garden Muzzleloading Rifle… — 815 applicants for 14 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- D14 Zone D14 Archery and General… — 1,520 first-choice applicants for 2,700 tags
- D9 Zone D9 Archery and General… — 730 first-choice applicants for 1,800 tags
- A1 Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck — 681 first-choice applicants for 1,751 tags
- A31 Los Angeles Archery Either - sex — 457 first-choice applicants for 900 tags
- A22 San Diego Archery Either - Sex — 589 first-choice applicants for 900 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 359 Grizzly Island Period 10 - General… — 3,012 applicants for 2 tags
- 332 Lake Pillsbury - General Methods… — 1,077 applicants for 1 tag
- 406 Cache Creek Period 1 - General… — 1,023 applicants for 1 tag
- 461 East Park Reservoir - General… — 996 applicants for 1 tag
- 362 Grizzly Island Period 12 - General… — 1,387 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 710 Zone 1 - Mount Dome - General… — 349 applicants for 1 tag
- 740 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 1 - General… — 4,875 applicants for 27 tags
- 760 Zone 6 - Surprise Valley - General… — 1,400 applicants for 8 tags
- 745 Zone 4 - Lassen - Archery - Buck — 526 applicants for 4 tags
- 742 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 2 - General… — 3,338 applicants for 27 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 508 Zone 8 - South Bristol Mountains… — 1,188 applicants for 1 tag
- 509 Zone 9 - Cady Mountains - General… — 943 applicants for 1 tag
- 501 Zone 1 - Marble and Clipper… — 2,379 applicants for 4 tags
- 503 Zone 3 - Clark and Kingston… — 1,783 applicants for 3 tags
- 507 Zone 7 - White Mountains - General… — 2,877 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
No code's cut moved by a full point.
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 669 applicants for 4 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 101 applicants for 1 tag
- 455-60 Deer Permit 455-60 — 52 applicants for 1 tag
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 97 applicants for 2 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 134 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 699-00 Deer B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 31 first-choice applicants for 300 tags
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 31 first-choice applicants for 250 tags
- 597-00 Deer B License 597-00 — 30 first-choice applicants for 150 tags
- 640-00 Deer B License 640-00 — Antlerless… — 42 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 598-00 Deer B License 598-00 — 68 first-choice applicants for 120 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 270 applicants for 3 tags
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 83 applicants for 1 tag
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 653 applicants for 13 tags
- 690-21 Elk Permit 690-21 — Either-sex Elk — 138 applicants for 5 tags
- 410-20 Elk Permit 410-20 — Either-sex Elk — 409 applicants for 15 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerless… — 340 first-choice applicants for 600 tags
- 595-00 Elk B License 595-00 — Antlerless… — 120 first-choice applicants for 350 tags
- 210-03 Elk B License 210-03 — Antlerless… — 5 first-choice applicants for 80 tags
- 411-00 Elk B License 411-00 — Antlerless… — 51 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 396-00 Elk B License 396-00 — Antlerless… — 12 first-choice applicants for 60 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 334-50 Moose License 334-50 — Antlered… — 645 applicants for 1 tag
- 332-50 Moose License 332-50 — Antlered… — 472 applicants for 1 tag
- 102-50 Moose License 102-50 — Antlered… — 234 applicants for 1 tag
- 333-50 Moose License 333-50 — Antlered… — 209 applicants for 1 tag
- 447-50 Moose License 447-50 — Antlered… — 154 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 550-20 Antelope License 550-20… — 13 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 550-30 Antelope B License 550-30… — 4 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 481-30 Antelope B License 481-30… — 6 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 670-30 Antelope B License 670-30… — 9 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 511-20 Antelope License 511-20… — 15 first-choice applicants for 25 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Lion
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 121-01 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 41 applicants for 1 tag
- 102-01 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 27 applicants for 1 tag
- 290-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 24 applicants for 1 tag
- 100-01 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 17 applicants for 1 tag
- 103-01 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 13 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 680-20 Bighorn Sheep License 680-20 — Any… — 2,302 applicants for 2 tags
- 482-20 Bighorn Sheep License 482-20 — Any… — 2,152 applicants for 2 tags
- 622-20 Bighorn Sheep License 622-20 — 900 applicants for 1 tag
- 121-20 Bighorn Sheep License 121-20 — Any… — 860 applicants for 1 tag
- 210-20 Bighorn Sheep License 210-20 — Any… — 339 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 393-20 Mountain Goat License 393-20… — 939 applicants for 1 tag
- 324-20 Mountain Goat License 324-20… — 367 applicants for 1 tag
- 313-20 Mountain Goat License 313-20… — 319 applicants for 1 tag
- 320-20 Mountain Goat License 320-20… — 238 applicants for 1 tag
- 329-20 Mountain Goat License 329-20… — 168 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bison
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Random draw — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Random draw — no point cut to compare.
Montana Turkey
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Random draw — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Random draw — no point cut to compare.
Nebraska Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- FRENCHMAN-MDCA Frenchman MDCA — 875 applicants for 160 tags
- PLATTE-MDCA Platte MDCA — 347 applicants for 210 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
No code's cut moved by a full point.
Nevada Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 1332-221.222.223-1031 Mule deer antlered — 1,208 applicants for 2 tags
- 1332-241.242.243.244.245-1005 Mule deer antlered — 2,075 applicants for 10 tags
- 1332-081-1211 Mule deer antlered — 1,024 applicants for 5 tags
- 1342-241.242.243.244.245-0810 Mule deer antlered — 326 applicants for 2 tags
- 1332-131.132.133.134-1021 Mule deer antlered — 427 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Nevada Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 4251-161.162.163.164.171.172.173-0917 Elk antlered — 1,278 applicants for 1 tag
- 4261-111.112.113.114.115-0825 Elk antlered — 1,398 applicants for 4 tags
- 4261-221.222.223-0825 Elk antlered — 836 applicants for 3 tags
- 4251-111.112.113.114.115-1106 Elk antlered — 2,046 applicants for 12 tags
- 4251-221.222.223-1106 Elk antlered — 1,225 applicants for 8 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Nevada Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 2251-076.077.079.081.091-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 1,673 applicants for 4 tags
- 2251-021.022-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 526 applicants for 4 tags
- 2251-033-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 522 applicants for 4 tags
- 2251-251-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 239 applicants for 3 tags
- 2251-011-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 400 applicants for 7 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Nevada Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 8251-051-0901 California bighorn sheep — 2,836 applicants for 1 tag
- 8251-032-0901 California bighorn sheep — 2,422 applicants for 1 tag
- 8251-068-0901 California bighorn sheep — 2,264 applicants for 1 tag
- 3251-263-1120 Nelson (desert) bighorn sheep — 1,371 applicants for 1 tag
- 3251-268-1120 Nelson (desert) bighorn sheep — 4,678 applicants for 4 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Texas Deer
Hardest Tags
Bonus points (cubed) — no point cut to publish. Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Prior draw not on file.
Texas Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags
Bonus points (cubed) — no point cut to publish. Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Prior draw not on file.
Texas Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags
Bonus points (cubed) — no point cut to publish. Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Prior draw not on file.
Texas Turkey
Hardest Tags
Bonus points (cubed) — no point cut to publish. Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Texas Parks & Wildlife Department publishes no applicant counts.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2019
Prior draw not on file.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications.