Alaska Caribou Draw Odds
Enter your points, see your chance of drawing every caribou tag in Alaska — straight from the 2025 draw results.
* Projected from this year's calendar; the agency sets next year's exact dates.
How the Alaska draw works (30-second version)
Random draw.
Every applicant has the same chance: tags ÷ applicants. Points don't exist or don't matter here.
How much these move year to year: last year's odds missed by <1% for the typical applicant (most people sit right at the cut). Details
Chances are from the 2025 draw (the most recent) for a first-choice nonresident. "Points needed" = the cut in the last draw.
Simple view Odds at every point level-
<1% Long shot
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<1% Long shot
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1% Long shot
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1% Long shot
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<1% Long shot
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1% Long shot
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45% Real chance
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<1% Long shot
| Hunt | Your odds | Points needed | Tags / applicants | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC001 ↗ 7, Kenai Mountains Unit 7 | <1% Long shot | — | 5 / 3,952 | Aug 10 – Sep 20, 2025 |
| DC590 ↗ 14A and 14B, Western Talkeetna Mountains | <1% Long shot | — | 50 / 9,028 | Dec 1 – Mar 15, 2026 |
| DC608 ↗ 15B, Killey River Unit 15B | 1% Long shot | — | 60 / 5,100 | Dec 1 – Mar 15, 2026 |
| DC618 ↗ 15C, Fox River Unit 15C | 1% Long shot | — | 10 / 812 | Aug 10 – Sep 20, 2025 |
| DC826 ↗ 20A, Central Alaska Range (guided nonresidents) Unit 20A | <1% Long shot | — | 13 / 2,353 | Aug 10 – Sep 20, 2025 |
| DC828 ↗ 20A, Central Alaska Range (guided nonresidents) Unit 20A | 1% Long shot | — | 13 / 1,224 | Aug 1–21, 2025 |
| DC923 ↗ Unit 23 Unit 23 | 45% Real chance | — | 300 / 666 | Aug 1 – Sep 30, 2025 |
| YC831 ↗ Units 20B, 20E, and 25C, Fortymile Zones 1 & 3 Youth Hunt (youth) | <1% Long shot | — | 30 / 4,572 | Aug 1–21, 2025 |
What these columns mean
- Your odds —
- the share of applicants at your point level who drew this tag in the 2025 draw. Not a forecast: quotas and demand move every year.
- The badge —
- plain language for that number. Likely draw 75% or better · Real chance 40%+ · Long shot 15%+ · Point builder below that, so you are applying mainly to bank a point · Undersubscribed means fewer first-choice applicants than tags, so everyone who applied drew.
- Points needed —
- the lowest point total that still got a tag in the 2025 draw, and how that cut has moved since the earliest draw we hold.
- Tags / applicants —
- tags on offer and first-choice applicants for them, as the agency published them. Under five tags we print counts instead of a percentage, because one applicant either way swings it.
Browse by hunt area
Each area has its own page: where it is on the map, how much of it is public land, what the hunters who went there killed last season, and every license type you can apply for inside it.
Spot a data error on this page? Tell us.
How to read these numbers
Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.
Not an application service
This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.