AmmoSight

Alaska Mountain Goat Draw Odds

Enter your points, see your chance of drawing every mountain goat tag in Alaska — straight from the 2025 draw results.

Next application:opens Nov 1, closes Dec 15, 2026 (expected) Cost to apply:$165 ($165 if you miss) Nonresident tags (2025):814 Applicants:38,006

* Projected from this year's calendar; the agency sets next year's exact dates.

How the Alaska draw works (30-second version)

Random draw.

Every applicant has the same chance: tags ÷ applicants. Points don't exist or don't matter here.

Full mechanics, fees, and deadlines →

No points in this draw — every nonresident applicant has the same chance.

Chances are from the 2025 draw (the most recent) for a first-choice nonresident. "Points needed" = the cut in the last draw.

Simple view Odds at every point level
  • DG005 Unit 1A, Revillagigedo I. Achilles Mt. area, Mt. Goat DG005 3 tags · 749 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG006 Unit 1A, Revillagigedo I. Deer Mt. area, Mt. Goat DG006 23 tags · 3,352 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG008 Unit 1A, 1B Cleveland Pen., Mt. Goat DG008 1 tags · 354 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG332 7, Gilpatrick Mt. 6 tags · 1,583 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG334 7, Mills Creek 7 tags · 992 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG338 7, Crescent Lake 9 tags · 1,952 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG339 7, Grant Lake 7 tags · 571 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DG342 7, Lost Lake 8 tags · 1,042 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG343 7, Victor Creek 6 tags · 270 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG344 7, Nellie Juan Lake 8 tags · 387 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG345 7, Whidbey Bay 35 tags · 645 applicants
    5% Long shot
  • DG346 7, Resurrection Peninsula 45 tags · 2,449 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG347 7, Seward 14 tags · 1,040 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DG351 7, Petrof Lake 14 tags · 116 applicants
    12% Long shot
  • DG352 7, Brown Mt. 25 tags · 383 applicants
    7% Long shot
  • DG354 15B, Skilak Glacier 6 tags · 448 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DG356 15B, Indian Creek 11 tags · 510 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG357 15C, Tustumena Glacier 16 tags · 327 applicants
    5% Long shot
  • DG358 15C, Fox River 18 tags · 311 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DG359 15C, Bradley Lake 30 tags · 440 applicants
    7% Long shot
  • DG360 15C, Dixon Glacier 45 tags · 845 applicants
    5% Long shot
  • DG361 15C, Halibut Cove 24 tags · 427 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DG362 15C, Sadie Cove 20 tags · 1,121 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG363 15C, Port Dick 30 tags · 713 applicants
    4% Long shot
  • DG471 08, Wild Creek - Center Mt. 35 tags · 546 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DG472 08, Crown Mt 12 tags · 316 applicants
    4% Long shot
  • DG473 08, Hidden Basin - East Terror Lake 12 tags · 480 applicants
    3% Long shot
  • DG474 08, Uganik River 70 tags · 699 applicants
    10% Long shot
  • DG476 08, Kiliuda Bay 50 tags · 457 applicants
    11% Long shot
  • DG478 08, South Road System 80 tags · 3,360 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG479 08, North Road System 50 tags · 2,364 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG720 13D 15 tags · 1,570 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG852 14C, East Fork Eklutna 3 tags · 1,389 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG854 14C, Upper Eagle River 10 tags · 1,962 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG856 14C, Glacier Creek 5 tags · 399 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DG858 14C, Bird Creek 4 tags · 1,041 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DG889 14C, Non-Resident Lake George Mountain Goat Hunt 7 tags · 355 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG890 14A, Metal Creek 20 tags · 1,167 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DG891 14A, Marcus Baker 30 tags · 874 applicants
    3% Long shot
What these columns mean
Your odds
—
the share of applicants at your point level who drew this tag in the 2025 draw. Not a forecast: quotas and demand move every year.
The badge
—
plain language for that number. Likely draw 75% or better · Real chance 40%+ · Long shot 15%+ · Point builder below that, so you are applying mainly to bank a point · Undersubscribed means fewer first-choice applicants than tags, so everyone who applied drew.
Points needed
—
the lowest point total that still got a tag in the 2025 draw, and how that cut has moved since the earliest draw we hold.
Tags / applicants
—
tags on offer and first-choice applicants for them, as the agency published them. Under five tags we print counts instead of a percentage, because one applicant either way swings it.
3 hunts not offered in 2025 are hidden — show discontinued hunts.

Browse by hunt area

Each area has its own page: where it is on the map, how much of it is public land, what the hunters who went there killed last season, and every license type you can apply for inside it.

1A 93% success 1B 49% success 1C 52% success 1D 30% success 4 78% success 5A 67% success 6A 79% success 6B 64% success 6C 29% success 6D 41% success 7 10% success 8 52% success 11 56% success 13D 31% success 13E 14A 32% success 14C 45% success 15C 37% success
Spot a data error on this page? Tell us.

Every report is checked against the agency source before we change anything.

How to read these numbers

Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.

Not an application service

This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.