State of the Montana Draw 2009
← 2008 · 2010 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2009 draws in Montana: 692 hunt codes, 9,710 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 30,546 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), California (latest 2025), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), Nebraska (latest 2026), Nevada (latest 2025), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 197 | 3,878 | 5,904 | 1.5 | 69% | 114 | — | — | 6% |
| Montana · Elk | 176 | 2,526 | 5,572 | 2.2 | 43% | 42 | — | — | 11% |
| Montana · Moose | 116 | 45 | 2,480 | 55.1 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 99 | 3,207 | 8,066 | 2.5 | 55% | 40 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 54 | 32 | 5,989 | 187.2 | 9% | 6 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 50 | 22 | 2,535 | 115.2 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 653 applicants for 4 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 144 applicants for 3 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 73 applicants for 2 tags
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 143 applicants for 5 tags
- 410-00 Deer B License 410-00 — Antlerless… — 54 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 797-00 Deer B License 797-00 — 1,628 first-choice applicants for 3,000 tags
- 699-00 Deer B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 72 first-choice applicants for 500 tags
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 19 first-choice applicants for 200 tags
- 598-00 Deer B License 598-00 — 47 first-choice applicants for 225 tags
- 498-00 Deer B License 498-00 — Antlerless… — 189 first-choice applicants for 300 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2008
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 410-20 Elk Permit 410-20 — Either-sex Elk — 212 applicants for 5 tags
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 426 applicants for 11 tags
- 313-11 Elk Permit 313-11 — 154 applicants for 4 tags
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 25 applicants for 1 tag
- 622-20 Elk Permit 622-20 — Either-sex Elk — 144 applicants for 6 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-80 Elk B License 004-80 — 115 first-choice applicants for 220 tags
- 339-00 Elk B License 339-00 — 13 first-choice applicants for 80 tags
- 314-80 Elk B License 314-80 — 44 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 343-00 Elk B License 343-00 — 12 first-choice applicants for 60 tags
- 441-00 Elk Permit 441-00 — 2 first-choice applicants for 35 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2008
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2008
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 700-20 Antelope License 700-20 — 82 first-choice applicants for 1,000 tags
- 401-10 Antelope B License 401-10 — 1 first-choice applicant for 60 tags
- 450-10 Antelope B License 450-10 — 2 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 620-10 Antelope B License 620-10 — 3 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 690-10 Antelope B License 690-10 — 5 first-choice applicants for 52 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2008
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 680-00 Bighorn Sheep License 680-00 — 2,350 applicants for 2 tags
- 482-00 Bighorn Sheep License 482-00 — 892 applicants for 1 tag
- 210-00 Bighorn Sheep License 210-00 — 826 applicants for 1 tag
- 124-00 Bighorn Sheep License 124-00 — 615 applicants for 1 tag
- 121-00 Bighorn Sheep License 121-00 — 378 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2008
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 393-00 Mountain Goat License 393-00 — 1,093 applicants for 1 tag
- 316-00 Mountain Goat License 316-00 — 275 applicants for 1 tag
- 151-00 Mountain Goat License 151-00 — 137 applicants for 1 tag
- 323-00 Mountain Goat License 323-00 — 197 applicants for 2 tags
- 320-00 Mountain Goat License 320-00 — 91 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2008
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications. How we compute these.