State of the Big-Game Draw 2019
← 2018 · 2020 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2019 draws across 4 states: 1,092 hunt codes, 10,611 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 224,761 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 84 | 32,034* | 71,064 | — | 18% | 9 | — | — | — |
| California · Elk | 65 | 318* | 30,488 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Pronghorn | 17 | 245* | 18,608 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| California · Bighorn Sheep | 7 | 26* | 11,627 | — | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 152 | 2,363 | 5,333 | 2.3 | 51% | 62 | — | — | 3% |
| Montana · Elk | 156 | 3,544 | 10,636 | 3.0 | 27% | 26 | — | — | 3% |
| Montana · Moose | 90 | 26 | 2,707 | 104.1 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 110 | 2,511 | 7,571 | 3.0 | 22% | 15 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Mountain Lion | 24 | 29 | 372 | 12.8 | 4% | 0 | — | — | 25% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 44 | 23 | 7,070 | 307.4 | 14% | 5 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 34 | 14 | 3,131 | 223.6 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Bison | 5 | 8 | 1,068 | 133.5 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Wild Turkey | 2 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0% | 0 | — | — | 6% |
| Nebraska · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 3 | 370 | 1,015 | 2.7 | 33% | 0 | — | — | 10% |
| Nevada · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 144 | 984 | 14,838 | 15.1 | 0% | 2 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Elk | 65 | 382 | 11,761 | 30.8 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Pronghorn | 59 | 308 | 6,703 | 21.8 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Nevada · Bighorn Sheep | 31 | 48 | 20,757 | 432.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
* Tags shared by residents and nonresidents in one draw, so there is no nonresident quota to count and no apps-per-tag ratio. "Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
California Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- G39 Round Valley Late Season Buck… — 712 applicants for 1 tag
- G3 Goodale Buck - General Methods — 4,149 applicants for 23 tags
- G37 Anderson Flat Buck - General… — 2,271 applicants for 23 tags
- M9 Devil's Garden Muzzleloading Rifle… — 864 applicants for 14 tags
- X5B Zone X5B General Season - Buck — 2,608 applicants for 45 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- D6 Zone D6 Archery and General… — 1,839 first-choice applicants for 9,000 tags
- D9 Zone D9 Archery and General… — 644 first-choice applicants for 1,800 tags
- A1 Archery Hunt In C Zones - Buck — 611 first-choice applicants for 1,751 tags
- C C Zones General Seasons - Buck — 6,519 first-choice applicants for 7,335 tags
- A31 Los Angeles Archery Either - sex — 471 first-choice applicants for 900 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 359 Grizzly Island Period 10 - General… — 2,468 applicants for 2 tags
- 461 East Park Reservoir - General… — 922 applicants for 1 tag
- 332 Lake Pillsbury - General Methods… — 884 applicants for 1 tag
- 406 Cache Creek Period 1 - General… — 862 applicants for 1 tag
- 362 Grizzly Island Period 12 - General… — 1,337 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 710 Zone 1 - Mount Dome - General… — 318 applicants for 1 tag
- 760 Zone 6 - Surprise Valley - General… — 1,143 applicants for 8 tags
- 740 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 1 - General… — 3,726 applicants for 27 tags
- 742 Zone 4 - Lassen Period 2 - General… — 3,223 applicants for 27 tags
- 745 Zone 4 - Lassen - Archery - Buck — 440 applicants for 4 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
No code's cut moved by a full point.
California Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- 509 Zone 9 - Cady Mountains - General… — 1,136 applicants for 1 tag
- 508 Zone 8 - South Bristol Mountains… — 650 applicants for 1 tag
- 501 Zone 1 - Marble and Clipper… — 2,573 applicants for 4 tags
- 503 Zone 3 - Clark and Kingston… — 1,582 applicants for 3 tags
- 510 Zone 10 - Newberry, Rodman and Ord… — 2,537 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
No code's cut moved by a full point.
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 873 applicants for 4 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 118 applicants for 1 tag
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 164 applicants for 2 tags
- 455-60 Deer Permit 455-60 — 69 applicants for 1 tag
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 152 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 699-00 Deer B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 36 first-choice applicants for 300 tags
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 29 first-choice applicants for 250 tags
- 597-00 Deer B License 597-00 — 20 first-choice applicants for 80 tags
- 640-00 Deer B License 640-00 — Antlerless… — 20 first-choice applicants for 80 tags
- 598-00 Deer B License 598-00 — 70 first-choice applicants for 120 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 117 applicants for 1 tag
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 263 applicants for 3 tags
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 775 applicants for 13 tags
- 690-21 Elk Permit 690-21 — Either-sex Elk — 136 applicants for 3 tags
- 622-20 Elk Permit 622-20 — Either-sex Elk — 208 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerless… — 351 first-choice applicants for 600 tags
- 311-00 Elk B License 311-00 — 14 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 396-00 Elk B License 396-00 — Antlerless… — 7 first-choice applicants for 60 tags
- 213-00 Elk B License 213-00 — Antlerless… — 5 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 204-00 Elk B License 204-00 — Antlerless… — 3 first-choice applicants for 15 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 331-50 Moose License 331-50 — Antlered… — 693 applicants for 1 tag
- 330-50 Moose License 330-50 — Antlered… — 294 applicants for 1 tag
- 126-50 Moose License 126-50 — Antlered… — 255 applicants for 1 tag
- 111-50 Moose License 111-50 — Antlered… — 140 applicants for 1 tag
- 293-50 Moose License 293-50 — Antlered… — 131 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 550-20 Antelope License 550-20… — 18 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 550-30 Antelope B License 550-30… — 1 first-choice applicant for 20 tags
- 540-30 Antelope B License 540-30… — 2 first-choice applicants for 15 tags
- 471-30 Antelope B License 471-30… — 9 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 501-20 Antelope License 501-20… — 35 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Lion
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 102-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 32 applicants for 1 tag
- 103-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 28 applicants for 1 tag
- 122-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 23 applicants for 1 tag
- 280-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 20 applicants for 1 tag
- 283-00 Limited Mountain Lion License… — 20 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 622-20 Bighorn Sheep License 622-20 — 1,573 applicants for 1 tag
- 482-20 Bighorn Sheep License 482-20 — Any… — 1,811 applicants for 2 tags
- 680-20 Bighorn Sheep License 680-20 — Any… — 1,625 applicants for 2 tags
- 270-20 Bighorn Sheep License 270-20 — Any… — 771 applicants for 1 tag
- 203-20 Bighorn Sheep License 203-20 — Any… — 643 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 313-20 Mountain Goat License 313-20… — 439 applicants for 1 tag
- 350-20 Mountain Goat License 350-20… — 382 applicants for 1 tag
- 361-20 Mountain Goat License 361-20… — 300 applicants for 1 tag
- 314-20 Mountain Goat License 314-20… — 557 applicants for 2 tags
- 331-20 Mountain Goat License 331-20… — 194 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bison
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Random draw — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Random draw — no point cut to compare.
Montana Turkey
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Random draw — no point cut to publish.
- 445-20 Spring Turkey License 445-20… — 12 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Random draw — no point cut to compare.
Nebraska Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
No drew-out levels published.
- FRENCHMAN-MDCA Frenchman MDCA — 667 applicants for 160 tags
- PLATTE-MDCA Platte MDCA — 322 applicants for 210 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
No code's cut moved by a full point.
Nevada Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 1332-221.222.223-1031 Mule deer antlered — 1,487 applicants for 2 tags
- 1332-081-1211 Mule deer antlered — 1,096 applicants for 5 tags
- 1372-081-1121 Mule deer antlered — 301 applicants for 2 tags
- 1332-241.242.243.244.245-1005 Mule deer antlered — 1,461 applicants for 10 tags
- 1332-194.196-1105 Mule deer antlered — 641 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Nevada Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 4251-161.162.163.164.171.172.173-0917 Elk antlered — 1,200 applicants for 1 tag
- 4261-111.112.113.114.115-0825 Elk antlered — 1,320 applicants for 4 tags
- 4261-221.222.223-0825 Elk antlered — 526 applicants for 2 tags
- 4256-062.064.066.067.068-0901 Elk antlered — 259 applicants for 1 tag
- 4251-111.112.113.114.115-1106 Elk antlered — 1,955 applicants for 10 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Nevada Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 2251-076.077.079.081.091-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 1,266 applicants for 6 tags
- 2251-033-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 612 applicants for 4 tags
- 2251-021.022-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 532 applicants for 5 tags
- 2261-033-0801 Antelope horns longer than ears — 64 applicants for 1 tag
- 2251-251-0822 Antelope horns longer than ears — 186 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Nevada Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 8251-032-0901 California bighorn sheep — 3,036 applicants for 1 tag
- 8251-051-0901 California bighorn sheep — 2,979 applicants for 1 tag
- 3251-263-1120 Nelson (desert) bighorn sheep — 1,263 applicants for 1 tag
- 3251-268-1120 Nelson (desert) bighorn sheep — 4,453 applicants for 4 tags
- 8251-035-0901 California bighorn sheep — 1,019 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2018
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications. How we compute these.