Texas Turkey Draw Odds
Enter your points, see your chance of drawing every turkey tag in Texas — straight from the 2025 draw results.
How the Texas draw works (30-second version)
Bonus points (linear).
Every applicant gets points³ + 1 entries in a random draw, so more points mean more chances — but never a guarantee.
Chances are from the 2025 draw (the most recent) for a first-choice nonresident. "Points needed" = the cut in the last draw.
Simple view Odds at every point level-
<1% Point builder
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1% Point builder
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— Cut level
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<1% Point builder
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1% Point builder
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<1% Point builder
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<1% Point builder
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— Cut level
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<1% Point builder
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<1% Point builder
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<1% Point builder
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2% Point builder
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<1% Point builder
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2% Point builder
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1% Point builder
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<1% Point builder
| Hunt | Your odds (0 pts) | Points needed | Tags / applicants | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETK-CA ↗ E-Postcard Turkey - Caddo National Grasslands WMA - Bois d'Arc Unit Caddo National Grasslands WMA - Bois d'Arc Unit | <1% Point builder | — | 10 / — | Apr 22–28, 2027 |
| ETK-MP ↗ E-Postcard Turkey - Moore Plantation WMA Moore Plantation WMA | 1% Point builder | — | 18 / — | Apr 22–25, 2027 |
| ETK-PM ↗ E-Postcard Turkey - Pat Mayse WMA Pat Mayse WMA | — Cut level | — | — / — | Apr 22–28, 2027 |
| GTS-GE ↗ Spring Turkey - Gene Howe WMA Gene Howe WMA | <1% Point builder | — | 3 / — | Apr 12–14, 2027 |
| GTS-JD ↗ Spring Turkey - James Daughtrey WMA James Daughtrey WMA | 1% Point builder | — | 24 / — | Mar 23 – Apr 1, 2027 |
| GTS-KE ↗ Spring Turkey - Kerr WMA Kerr WMA | <1% Point builder | — | 10 / — | Apr 6–8, 2027 |
| GTS-MA ↗ Spring Turkey - Matador WMA Matador WMA | <1% Point builder | — | 8 / — | Apr 21–28, 2027 |
| GTS-MM ↗ Spring Turkey - Mason Mountain WMA Mason Mountain WMA | — Cut level | — | — / — | Apr 6–8, 2027 |
| GTS-MW ↗ Spring Turkey - Muse WMA Muse WMA | <1% Point builder | — | 8 / — | Apr 6–15, 2027 |
| GTS-RF ↗ Spring Turkey - Roger Fawcett WMA Roger Fawcett WMA | <1% Point builder | — | 6 / — | Apr 6–8, 2027 |
| NTS-UE ↗ National Refuge Spring Turkey - Lower Rio Grande Valley NWR - East Lake Lower Rio Grande Valley NWR - East Lake | <1% Point builder | — | 8 / — | Apr 2–11, 2027 |
| NTS-UP ↗ National Refuge Spring Turkey - Hagerman NWR Hagerman NWR | 2% Point builder | — | 25 / — | Apr 22–24, 2027 |
| YTS-GE ↗ Youth Only Spring Turkey - Gene Howe WMA Gene Howe WMA | <1% Point builder | — | 1 / — | Apr 10–11, 2027 |
| YTS-JD ↗ Youth Only Spring Turkey - James Daughtrey WMA James Daughtrey WMA | 2% Point builder | — | 12 / — | Mar 13–14, 2027 |
| YTS-KE ↗ Youth Only Spring Turkey - Kerr WMA Kerr WMA | 1% Point builder | — | 10 / — | Mar 27–28, 2027 |
| YTS-MA ↗ Youth Only Spring Turkey - Matador WMA Matador WMA | <1% Point builder | — | 4 / — | Apr 24–25, 2027 |
What these columns mean
- Your odds —
- the share of applicants at your point level who drew this tag in the 2025 draw. Not a forecast: quotas and demand move every year.
- The badge —
- plain language for that number. Likely draw 75% or better · Real chance 40%+ · Long shot 15%+ · Point builder below that, so you are applying mainly to bank a point · Undersubscribed means fewer first-choice applicants than tags, so everyone who applied drew.
- Points needed —
- the lowest point total that still got a tag in the 2025 draw, and how that cut has moved since the earliest draw we hold.
- Tags / applicants —
- tags on offer and first-choice applicants for them, as the agency published them. Under five tags we print counts instead of a percentage, because one applicant either way swings it.
Browse by hunt area
Each area has its own page: where it is on the map, how much of it is public land, what the hunters who went there killed last season, and every license type you can apply for inside it.
Spot a data error on this page? Tell us.
How to read these numbers
Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.
Not an application service
This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.