Alaska Brown Bear Draw Odds

Enter your points, see your chance of drawing every brown bear tag in Alaska — straight from the 2025 draw results.

Next application:opens Nov 1, closes Dec 15, 2026 (expected) Cost to apply:$165 ($165 if you miss) Nonresident tags (2025):641 Applicants:18,127

* Projected from this year's calendar; the agency sets next year's exact dates.

How the Alaska draw works (30-second version)

Random draw.

Every applicant has the same chance: tags ÷ applicants. Points don't exist or don't matter here.

Full mechanics, fees, and deadlines →

No points in this draw — every nonresident applicant has the same chance.

Chances are from the 2025 draw (the most recent) for a first-choice nonresident. "Points needed" = the cut in the last draw.

Simple view Odds at every point level
  • DB077 Unit 4 (Fall) Brown Bear DB077 (guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 13 applicants
    23% Long shot
  • DB088 Unit 4, Outside Drainages Only (Spring) Brown Bear DB088 (guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 13 applicants
    15% Long shot
  • DB089 Unit 4, Inside Drainages Only (Spring) Brown Bear DB089 (guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 28 applicants
    7% Long shot
  • DB101 08, Kizhuyak Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 1 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB102 08, West Ugak Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 11 applicants
    36% Long shot
  • DB103 08, South Ugak Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 17 applicants
    24% Long shot
  • DB104 08, Kiliuda Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 8 applicants
    38% Long shot
  • DB105 08, Three Saints & Barling Bays (fall season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 6 applicants
    50% Real chance
  • DB106 08, Kaiugnak Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 0 applicants
    100% No first-choice applicants
  • DB107 08, Aliulik Peninsula (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 6 applicants
    33% Long shot
  • DB108 08, Deadman Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 0 applicants
    100% No first-choice applicants
  • DB109 08, Dog Salmon River (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 7 applicants
    14% Long shot
  • DB110 08, South Olga Lakes (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 0 applicants
    100% No first-choice applicants
  • DB111 08, Red Lake (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB112 08, Frazer Lake (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 15 applicants
    7% Long shot
  • DB113 08, Karluk Lake (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 6 applicants
    17% Long shot
  • DB114 08, Halibut Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 8 applicants
    25% Long shot
  • DB115 08, Sturgeon River (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB116 08, North Karluk River (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 6 applicants
    33% Long shot
  • DB117 08, North Uyak Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 1 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB118 08, South Uyak Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 1 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB119 08, Zachar Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 1 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB120 08, South Spiridon Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 7 applicants
    14% Long shot
  • DB121 08, Spiridon Lake (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB122 08, Uganik Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 1 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB123 08, South Arm, Uganik Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 0 applicants
    100% No first-choice applicants
  • DB124 08, Uganik Lake (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 1 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB125 08, Uganik Island, Terror Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB126 08, Kupreanof Peninsula (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB127 08, Sharatin Bay (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 1 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB128 08, Wild Creek (fall season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 8 applicants
    25% Long shot
  • DB131 Kodiak: Kizhuyak Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 1 tags · 0 applicants
    100% No first-choice applicants
  • DB132 Kodiak: West Ugak Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 13 applicants
    23% Long shot
  • DB133 Kodiak: South Ugak Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 9 applicants
    33% Long shot
  • DB134 Kodiak: bear hunters on their lands. Areas subject to these (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 10 applicants
    30% Long shot
  • DB135 Kodiak: Hunters are strongly encouraged to check on guide (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB136 Kodiak: licensed guides registered for particular hunt areas may (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 0 applicants
    100% No first-choice applicants
  • DB137 Kodiak: Aliulik Peninsula (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 6 applicants
    67% Real chance
  • DB138 Kodiak: Deadman Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 0 applicants
    100% No first-choice applicants
  • DB139 Kodiak: Dog Salmon River (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB140 Kodiak: South Olga Lakes (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 9 applicants
    33% Long shot
  • DB141 Kodiak: Red Lake (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 10 applicants
    40% Real chance
  • DB142 Kodiak: bear Drawing permit for the remainder of the regulatory (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB143 Kodiak: the deadline. If a successful applicant cancels their (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 7 applicants
    43% Real chance
  • DB144 Kodiak: will choose an alternate for that permit from the alternate (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB145 Kodiak: Sturgeon River (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB146 Kodiak: North Karluk River (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 4 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB147 Kodiak: North Uyak Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB148 Kodiak: South Uyak Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 4 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB149 Kodiak: Zachar Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB150 Kodiak: verification code (obtained by the guide from Big Game (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB151 Kodiak: Spiridon Lake (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB152 Kodiak: Uganik Bay (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB153 Hunt DB153 (spring season, guided nonresidents) 2 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB154 Kodiak: Uganik Lake (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB155 Hunt DB155 (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 4 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB156 Kodiak: Kupreanof Peninsula (spring season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB157 Kodiak: in Kodiak in person BEFORE the start of the season. No (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 2 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB158 Kodiak: Wild Creek (spring season, guided nonresidents) 4 tags · 3 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB161 08, East Afognak and Marmot Islands (fall season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 23 applicants
    13% Long shot
  • DB162 08, Central Afognak and Shuyak Islands (fall season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 12 applicants
    25% Long shot
  • DB163 08, Southwest Afognak and Raspberry Islands (fall season, guided nonresidents) 3 tags · 15 applicants
    20% Long shot
  • DB191 Kodiak: start of the season. (spring season, guided nonresidents) 5 tags · 18 applicants
    28% Long shot
  • DB192 Hunt DB192 (spring season, guided nonresidents) 5 tags · 22 applicants
    23% Long shot
  • DB193 Hunt DB193 (spring season, guided nonresidents) 5 tags · 12 applicants
    42% Real chance
  • DB201 08, Kizhuyak Bay (fall season) 3 tags · 70 applicants
    4% Long shot
  • DB202 08, West Ugak Bay (fall season) 5 tags · 86 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DB203 08, South Ugak Bay (fall season) 5 tags · 342 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB204 08, Kiliuda Bay (fall season) 4 tags · 181 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB205 08, Three Saints & Barling Bays (fall season) 4 tags · 316 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB206 08, Kaiugnak Bay (fall season) 3 tags · 286 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB207 08, Aliulik Peninsula (fall season) 3 tags · 693 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB208 08, Deadman Bay (fall season) 3 tags · 451 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB209 08, Dog Salmon River (fall season) 2 tags · 169 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB210 08, South Olga Lakes (fall season) 3 tags · 198 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB211 08, Red Lake (fall season) 3 tags · 876 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB212 08, Frazer Lake (fall season) 1 tags · 401 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB213 08, Karluk Lake (fall season) 3 tags · 548 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB214 08, Halibut Bay (fall season) 1 tags · 214 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB215 08, Sturgeon River (fall season) 3 tags · 95 applicants
    3% Long shot
  • DB216 08, North Karluk River (fall season) 3 tags · 117 applicants
    3% Long shot
  • DB217 08, North Uyak Bay (fall season) 3 tags · 144 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB218 08, South Uyak Bay (fall season) 2 tags · 102 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB219 08, Zachar Bay (fall season) 2 tags · 234 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB220 08, South Spiridon Bay (fall season) 2 tags · 103 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB221 08, Spiridon Lake (fall season) 3 tags · 362 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB222 08, Uganik Bay (fall season) 3 tags · 134 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB223 08, South Arm, Uganik Bay (fall season) 2 tags · 63 applicants
    3% Long shot
  • DB224 08, Uganik Lake (fall season) 3 tags · 199 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB225 08, Uganik Island, Terror Bay (fall season) 3 tags · 215 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB226 08, Kupreanof Peninsula (fall season) 6 tags · 376 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB227 08, Sharatin Bay (fall season) 7 tags · 136 applicants
    5% Long shot
  • DB228 08, Wild Creek (fall season) 7 tags · 283 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB231 08, Kizhuyak Bay (spring season) 4 tags · 32 applicants
    13% Long shot
  • DB232 08, West Ugak Bay (spring season) 4 tags · 65 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DB233 08, South Ugak Bay (spring season) 5 tags · 204 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB234 08, Kiliuda Bay (spring season) 5 tags · 83 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DB235 08, Three Saints & Barling Bays (spring season) 5 tags · 125 applicants
    4% Long shot
  • DB236 08, Kaiugnak Bay (spring season) 5 tags · 159 applicants
    3% Long shot
  • DB237 08, Aliulik Peninsula (spring season) 5 tags · 487 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB238 08, Deadman Bay (spring season) 6 tags · 273 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB239 08, Dog Salmon River (spring season) 5 tags · 58 applicants
    9% Long shot
  • DB240 08, South Olga Lakes (spring season) 5 tags · 101 applicants
    5% Long shot
  • DB241 08, Red Lake (spring season) 5 tags · 162 applicants
    3% Long shot
  • DB242 08, Frazer Lake (spring season) 5 tags · 360 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB243 08, Karluk Lake (spring season) 4 tags · 160 applicants
    3% Long shot
  • DB244 08, Halibut Bay (spring season) 5 tags · 72 applicants
    7% Long shot
  • DB245 08, Sturgeon River (spring season) 5 tags · 41 applicants
    12% Long shot
  • DB246 08, North Karluk River (spring season) 6 tags · 67 applicants
    9% Long shot
  • DB247 08, North Uyak Bay (spring season) 5 tags · 77 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DB248 08, South Uyak Bay (spring season) 6 tags · 145 applicants
    4% Long shot
  • DB249 08, Zachar Bay (spring season) 5 tags · 67 applicants
    7% Long shot
  • DB250 08, South Spiridon Bay (spring season) 5 tags · 97 applicants
    5% Long shot
  • DB251 08, Spiridon Lake (spring season) 5 tags · 133 applicants
    4% Long shot
  • DB252 08, Uganik Bay (spring season) 6 tags · 80 applicants
    8% Long shot
  • DB253 08, South Arm, Uganik Bay (spring season) 3 tags · 11 applicants
    27% Long shot
  • DB254 08, Uganik Lake (spring season) 6 tags · 57 applicants
    11% Long shot
  • DB255 08, Uganik Island, Terror Bay (spring season) 6 tags · 100 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DB256 08, Kupreanof Peninsula (spring season) 6 tags · 132 applicants
    5% Long shot
  • DB257 08, Sharatin Bay (spring season) 15 tags · 138 applicants
    11% Long shot
  • DB258 08, Wild Creek (spring season) 15 tags · 84 applicants
    18% Long shot
  • DB261 08, East Afognak and Marmot Islands (fall season) 7 tags · 338 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB262 08, Central Afognak and Shuyak Islands (fall season) 7 tags · 377 applicants
    2% Long shot
  • DB263 08, Southwest Afognak and Raspberry Islands (fall season) 7 tags · 520 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB291 08, East Afognak and Marmot Island (spring season) 17 tags · 158 applicants
    11% Long shot
  • DB292 08, Central Afognak and Shuyak Islands (spring season) 17 tags · 236 applicants
    7% Long shot
  • DB293 08, Southwest Afognak and Raspberry Islands (spring season) 17 tags · 289 applicants
    6% Long shot
  • DB375 10, Unimak Island (guided nonresidents) 8 tags · 583 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB376 10, Unimak Island 8 tags · 1,011 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB468 14C, Eklutna Lake Management Area 20 tags · 461 applicants
    4% Long shot
  • DB470 14C, Chugach State Park Management Area 15 tags · 2,238 applicants
    <1% Long shot
  • DB477 14C, McHugh Creek Brown Bear 3 tags · 279 applicants
    1% Long shot
  • DB685 22B and 22C 30 tags · 14 applicants
    100% Undersubscribed
  • DB690 22D and 22E 35 tags · 173 applicants
    20% Long shot
  • DB987 26B 20 tags · 91 applicants
    22% Long shot
What these columns mean
Your odds
the share of applicants at your point level who drew this tag in the 2025 draw. Not a forecast: quotas and demand move every year.
The badge
plain language for that number. Likely draw 75% or better · Real chance 40%+ · Long shot 15%+ · Point builder below that, so you are applying mainly to bank a point · Undersubscribed means fewer first-choice applicants than tags, so everyone who applied drew.
Points needed
the lowest point total that still got a tag in the 2025 draw, and how that cut has moved since the earliest draw we hold.
Tags / applicants
tags on offer and first-choice applicants for them, as the agency published them. Under five tags we print counts instead of a percentage, because one applicant either way swings it.
2 hunts not offered in 2025 are hidden — show discontinued hunts.

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Each area has its own page: where it is on the map, how much of it is public land, what the hunters who went there killed last season, and every license type you can apply for inside it.

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How to read these numbers

Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.

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This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.