State of the Montana Draw 2011
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Nonresident view of the 2011 draws in Montana: 656 hunt codes, 8,894 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 30,866 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), California (latest 2025), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), Nebraska (latest 2026), Nevada (latest 2025), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 185 | 2,738 | 5,554 | 2.0 | 53% | 75 | — | — | 7% |
| Montana · Elk | 168 | 2,897 | 6,648 | 2.3 | 34% | 31 | — | — | 12% |
| Montana · Moose | 98 | 30 | 2,492 | 83.1 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 112 | 3,188 | 6,725 | 2.1 | 37% | 18 | — | — | 13% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 45 | 19 | 6,666 | 350.8 | 16% | 5 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 48 | 22 | 2,781 | 126.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 800 applicants for 4 tags
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 126 applicants for 2 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 123 applicants for 3 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 53 applicants for 2 tags
- 652-50 Deer Permit 652-50 — Antlered Buck… — 238 applicants for 10 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 699-00 Deer B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 62 first-choice applicants for 400 tags
- 598-00 Deer B License 598-00 — 40 first-choice applicants for 225 tags
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 18 first-choice applicants for 200 tags
- 445-01 Deer B License 445-01 — Antlerless… — 23 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 404-00 Deer B License 404-00 — Antlerless… — 20 first-choice applicants for 90 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2010
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 706 applicants for 8 tags
- 410-20 Elk Permit 410-20 — Either-sex Elk — 250 applicants for 5 tags
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 36 applicants for 1 tag
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 94 applicants for 3 tags
- 250-20 Elk Permit 250-20 — 55 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-80 Elk B License 004-80 — 155 first-choice applicants for 220 tags
- 422-80 Elk B License 422-80 — 3 first-choice applicants for 35 tags
- 442-80 Elk B License 442-80 — 0 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 398-80 Elk B License 398-80 — 22 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 798-81 Elk B License 798-81 — 4 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2010
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2010
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 490-10 Antelope B License 490-10 — 6 first-choice applicants for 70 tags
- 510-10 Antelope B License 510-10 — 11 first-choice applicants for 60 tags
- 590-10 Antelope B License 590-10 — 8 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 450-10 Antelope B License 450-10 — 7 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 413-10 Antelope B License 413-10 — 0 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2010
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 482-00 Bighorn Sheep License 482-00 — 1,671 applicants for 1 tag
- 680-00 Bighorn Sheep License 680-00 — 3,079 applicants for 2 tags
- 121-00 Bighorn Sheep License 121-00 — 644 applicants for 1 tag
- 422-00 Bighorn Sheep License 422-00 — 430 applicants for 1 tag
- 421-00 Bighorn Sheep License 421-00 — 273 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2010
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 393-00 Mountain Goat License 393-00 — 980 applicants for 1 tag
- 316-00 Mountain Goat License 316-00 — 213 applicants for 1 tag
- 131-00 Mountain Goat License 131-00 — 133 applicants for 1 tag
- 323-00 Mountain Goat License 323-00 — 227 applicants for 2 tags
- 313-00 Mountain Goat License 313-00 — 646 applicants for 6 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2010
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications. How we compute these.