State of the Montana Draw 2014
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Nonresident view of the 2014 draws in Montana: 476 hunt codes, 5,032 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 23,096 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), California (latest 2025), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), Nebraska (latest 2026), Nevada (latest 2025), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 78 | 525 | 2,820 | 5.4 | 41% | 25 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Elk | 110 | 2,143 | 1,907 | 0.9 | 34% | 18 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Moose | 92 | 29 | 2,910 | 100.3 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 111 | 2,291 | 4,586 | 2.0 | 23% | 10 | — | — | 8% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 46 | 19 | 7,500 | 394.7 | 11% | 5 | — | — | 22% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 39 | 25 | 3,373 | 134.9 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 679 applicants for 4 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 155 applicants for 2 tags
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 137 applicants for 2 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 148 applicants for 3 tags
- 652-50 Deer Permit 652-50 — Antlered Buck… — 173 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 124-00 Deer B License 124-00 — Antlerless… — 6 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 325-01 Deer B License 325-01 — 8 first-choice applicants for 15 tags
- 326-01 Deer B License 326-01 — 3 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
- 324-00 Deer B License 324-00 — 2 first-choice applicants for 5 tags
- 330-01 Deer B License 330-01 — 18 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2013
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 314-00 Elk B License 314-00 — Antlerless… — 31 applicants for 2 tags
- 425-05 Elk B License 425-05 — 4 applicants for 1 tag
- 329-00 Elk B License 329-00 — 169 applicants for 45 tags
- 520-00 Elk B License 520-00 — Antlerless… — 7 applicants for 2 tags
- 361-00 Elk B License 361-00 — Antlerless… — 16 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerless… — 178 first-choice applicants for 450 tags
- 900-00 Elk B License 900-00 — 60 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 411-00 Elk B License 411-00 — Antlerless… — 2 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 298-00 Elk B License 298-00 — 2 first-choice applicants for 25 tags
- 315-01 Elk B License 315-01 — Antlerless… — 19 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2013
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 331-50 Moose License 331-50 — Antlered… — 391 applicants for 1 tag
- 333-50 Moose License 333-50 — Antlered… — 194 applicants for 1 tag
- 332-50 Moose License 332-50 — Antlered… — 145 applicants for 1 tag
- 293-50 Moose License 293-50 — Antlered… — 130 applicants for 1 tag
- 100-50 Moose License 100-50 — Antlered… — 117 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2013
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 900-20 Antelope License (archery only)… — 472 first-choice applicants for 560 tags
- 450-30 Antelope B License 450-30… — 11 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 490-30 Antelope B License 490-30… — 13 first-choice applicants for 32 tags
- 370-30 Antelope B License 370-30 — 0 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
- 388-30 Antelope B License 388-30… — 0 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2013
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 680-20 Bighorn Sheep License 680-20 — Any… — 4,184 applicants for 2 tags
- 482-20 Bighorn Sheep License 482-20 — Any… — 1,351 applicants for 1 tag
- 422-20 Bighorn Sheep License 422-20 — Any… — 347 applicants for 1 tag
- 100-20 Bighorn Sheep License 100-20 — Any… — 325 applicants for 1 tag
- 121-20 Bighorn Sheep License 121-20 — Any… — 258 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2013
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 393-20 Mountain Goat License 393-20… — 1,076 applicants for 1 tag
- 361-20 Mountain Goat License 361-20… — 290 applicants for 1 tag
- 460-20 Mountain Goat License 460-20 — 254 applicants for 1 tag
- 324-20 Mountain Goat License 324-20… — 216 applicants for 1 tag
- 329-20 Mountain Goat License 329-20… — 160 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2013
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications.