State of the Western Draw 2016
← 2015 · 2017 → · every year: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Nonresident view of the 2016 draws across 1 state: 600 hunt codes, 7,278 nonresident tags, 34,648 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Demand at a glance
| State · species | Codes | NR tags | 1st-choice apps | Apps / tag | Drawable at 0 pts | Undersubscribed | Median cut | Cut shift | Odds error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 140 | 1,175 | 4,937 | 4.2 | 40% | 41 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Elk | 176 | 3,490 | 10,027 | 2.9 | 0% | 30 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Moose | 89 | 33 | 2,984 | 90.4 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 112 | 2,528 | 5,513 | 2.2 | 0% | 14 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 43 | 30 | 7,662 | 255.4 | 14% | 6 | — | — | — |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 40 | 22 | 3,525 | 160.2 | 0% | 0 | — | — | — |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Montana white-tailed / mule deer
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2015
Prior draw not on file.
Montana elk
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Biggest cut moves vs 2015
Prior draw not on file.
Montana moose
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2015
Prior draw not on file.
Montana pronghorn
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
- 318-30 Antelope B License 318-30 — Doe... — 4 of 37 tags claimed
- 550-20 Antelope License 550-20 — Eithe... — 6 of 30 tags claimed
- 450-30 Antelope B License 450-30 — Doe... — 6 of 30 tags claimed
- 590-30 Antelope B License 590-30 — Doe... — 8 of 25 tags claimed
- 510-30 Antelope B License 510-30 — Doe... — 16 of 30 tags claimed
Biggest cut moves vs 2015
Prior draw not on file.
Montana bighorn sheep
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2015
Prior draw not on file.
Montana mountain goat
Hardest tags (highest cut)
No drew-out levels published.
Sleepers (undersubscribed, 5+ tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest cut moves vs 2015
Prior draw not on file.
How to read these numbers
Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.
Not an application service
This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.