State of the Montana Draw 2016
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Nonresident view of the 2016 draws in Montana: 600 hunt codes, 7,273 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 34,648 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), California (latest 2025), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), Nebraska (latest 2026), Nevada (latest 2025), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 140 | 1,175 | 4,937 | 4.2 | 44% | 44 | — | — | 3% |
| Montana · Elk | 176 | 3,490 | 10,027 | 2.9 | 34% | 34 | — | — | 5% |
| Montana · Moose | 89 | 31 | 2,984 | 96.3 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 112 | 2,528 | 5,513 | 2.2 | 28% | 18 | — | — | 9% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 43 | 27 | 7,662 | 283.8 | 14% | 5 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 40 | 22 | 3,525 | 160.2 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 831 applicants for 4 tags
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 198 applicants for 2 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 217 applicants for 3 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 159 applicants for 3 tags
- 652-50 Deer Permit 652-50 — Antlered Buck… — 237 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 54 first-choice applicants for 200 tags
- 299-00 Deer B License 299-00 — 3 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 498-00 Deer B License 498-00 — Antlerless… — 16 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 495-00 Deer B License 495-00 — 8 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 315-01 Deer B License 315-01 — Antlerless… — 11 first-choice applicants for 25 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2015
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 103 applicants for 1 tag
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 236 applicants for 3 tags
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 931 applicants for 12 tags
- 410-20 Elk Permit 410-20 — Either-sex Elk — 466 applicants for 10 tags
- 621-20 Elk Permit 621-20 — Either-sex Elk — 186 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-00 Elk B License 004-00 — Antlerless… — 241 first-choice applicants for 480 tags
- 311-00 Elk B License 311-00 — 3 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 699-00 Elk B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 14 first-choice applicants for 50 tags
- 210-05 Elk B License 210-05 — 5 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 339-00 Elk B License 339-00 — 13 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2015
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 330-50 Moose License 330-50 — Antlered… — 1,185 applicants for 1 tag
- 323-50 Moose License 323-50 — Antlered… — 237 applicants for 1 tag
- 220-50 Moose License 220-50 — Antlered… — 188 applicants for 1 tag
- 101-50 Moose License 101-50 — Antlered… — 172 applicants for 1 tag
- 320-50 Moose License 320-50 — Antlered… — 124 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2015
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 560-30 Antelope B License 560-30… — 0 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 550-20 Antelope License 550-20… — 6 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 450-30 Antelope B License 450-30… — 6 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 590-30 Antelope B License 590-30… — 8 first-choice applicants for 25 tags
- 510-30 Antelope B License 510-30… — 16 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2015
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 680-20 Bighorn Sheep License 680-20 — Any… — 3,273 applicants for 2 tags
- 124-20 Bighorn Sheep License 124-20 — Any… — 958 applicants for 1 tag
- 482-20 Bighorn Sheep License 482-20 — Any… — 1,486 applicants for 2 tags
- 622-20 Bighorn Sheep License 622-20 — 592 applicants for 1 tag
- 441-20 Bighorn Sheep License 441-20 — Any… — 282 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2015
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 393-20 Mountain Goat License 393-20… — 1,122 applicants for 1 tag
- 320-20 Mountain Goat License 320-20… — 307 applicants for 1 tag
- 324-20 Mountain Goat License 324-20… — 188 applicants for 1 tag
- 314-20 Mountain Goat License 314-20… — 343 applicants for 2 tags
- 313-20 Mountain Goat License 313-20… — 489 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2015
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications. How we compute these.