State of the Montana Draw 2012
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Nonresident view of the 2012 draws in Montana: 638 hunt codes, 7,645 nonresident tags where states set a nonresident quota, 32,503 first-choice applications. Every figure is from the agency's published draw report; odds are prior-draw probabilities.
Not in this report: Alaska (latest 2025), Arizona (latest 2026), California (latest 2025), Colorado (latest 2026), Idaho (latest 2026), Iowa (latest 2026), Kansas (latest 2026), Kentucky (latest 2026), Nebraska (latest 2026), Nevada (latest 2025), New Mexico (latest 2026), North Dakota (latest 2026), Oregon (latest 2026), Pennsylvania (no nonresident results published), South Dakota (latest 2026), Tennessee (latest 2026), Texas (latest 2025), Utah (latest 2026), Washington (latest 2026) and Wyoming (latest 2026).
Demand at a Glance
| State · Species | Codes | NR Tags | 1st-Choice Apps | Apps / Tag | Drawable at 0 Pts | Undersubscribed | Median Cut | Cut Shift | Odds Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana · White-tailed / Mule Deer | 170 | 2,044 | 5,174 | 2.5 | 55% | 68 | — | — | 6% |
| Montana · Elk | 178 | 2,962 | 9,178 | 3.1 | 33% | 40 | — | — | 4% |
| Montana · Moose | 91 | 31 | 2,560 | 82.6 | 0% | 0 | — | — | 2% |
| Montana · Pronghorn | 111 | 2,565 | 5,634 | 2.2 | 26% | 9 | — | — | 11% |
| Montana · Bighorn Sheep | 50 | 16 | 6,928 | 433.0 | 12% | 6 | — | — | <1% |
| Montana · Mountain Goat | 38 | 27 | 3,029 | 112.2 | 0% | 0 | — | — | <1% |
"Drawable at 0 pts" = share of codes where a first-year applicant had at least a 50% chance. "Cut shift" needs the prior draw on file. "Odds error" = applicant-weighted back-test error of the prior year's odds (methodology).
Montana Deer
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 270-50 Deer Permit 270-50 — Antlered Buck… — 811 applicants for 4 tags
- 324-50 Deer Permit 324-50 — Antlered Buck… — 175 applicants for 2 tags
- 300-50 Deer Permit 300-50 — Antlered Buck… — 154 applicants for 3 tags
- 261-50 Deer Permit 261-50 — Antlered Buck… — 98 applicants for 2 tags
- 652-50 Deer Permit 652-50 — Antlered Buck… — 162 applicants for 5 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 599-00 Deer B License 599-00 — 17 first-choice applicants for 200 tags
- 598-00 Deer B License 598-00 — 44 first-choice applicants for 175 tags
- 445-01 Deer B License 445-01 — Antlerless… — 22 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 699-00 Deer B License 699-00 — Antlerless… — 32 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 411-01 Deer B License 411-01 — Antlerless… — 40 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2011
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Elk
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 380-20 Elk Permit 380-20 — Either-sex Elk — 1,048 applicants for 8 tags
- 622-20 Elk Permit 622-20 — Either-sex Elk — 306 applicants for 3 tags
- 632-20 Elk Permit 632-20 — Either-sex Elk — 95 applicants for 1 tag
- 410-20 Elk Permit 410-20 — Either-sex Elk — 403 applicants for 5 tags
- 690-20 Elk Permit 690-20 — Either-sex Elk — 188 applicants for 3 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 004-80 Elk B License 004-80 — 155 first-choice applicants for 280 tags
- 900-80 Elk B License 900-80 — 10 first-choice applicants for 100 tags
- 441-80 Elk B License 441-80 — 5 first-choice applicants for 35 tags
- 411-80 Elk B License 411-80 — 13 first-choice applicants for 40 tags
- 422-80 Elk B License 422-80 — 8 first-choice applicants for 35 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2011
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Moose
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2011
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Antelope (Pronghorn)
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
- 900-00 Antelope License 900-00 — 464 first-choice applicants for 560 tags
- 490-10 Antelope B License 490-10 — 9 first-choice applicants for 55 tags
- 450-10 Antelope B License 450-10 — 5 first-choice applicants for 30 tags
- 413-10 Antelope B License 413-10 — 0 first-choice applicants for 20 tags
- 388-10 Antelope B License 388-10 — 0 first-choice applicants for 10 tags
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2011
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Bighorn Sheep
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 680-00 Bighorn Sheep License 680-00 — 3,235 applicants for 2 tags
- 482-00 Bighorn Sheep License 482-00 — 1,174 applicants for 1 tag
- 122-00 Bighorn Sheep License 122-00 — 620 applicants for 1 tag
- 622-00 Bighorn Sheep License 622-00 — 522 applicants for 1 tag
- 424-00 Bighorn Sheep License 424-00 — 256 applicants for 1 tag
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2011
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
Montana Mountain Goat
Hardest Tags (Most Applicants per Tag)
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to publish.
- 447-00 Mountain Goat License 447-00 — 970 applicants for 1 tag
- 393-00 Mountain Goat License 393-00 — 379 applicants for 1 tag
- 316-00 Mountain Goat License 316-00 — 311 applicants for 1 tag
- 320-00 Mountain Goat License 320-00 — 128 applicants for 1 tag
- 329-00 Mountain Goat License 329-00 — 215 applicants for 2 tags
Sleepers (Undersubscribed, 5+ Tags)
Every code with 5+ tags was oversubscribed.
Biggest Cut Moves vs 2011
Bonus points (squared) — no point cut to compare.
About These Numbers
Every percentage here is the chance an applicant with that many points had in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results; quotas, applicant numbers and point levels change every year. A dash means the agency did not publish the number. Under five tags the percentage is flagged: one applicant either way swings it. Check the agency's site and apply there; we don't take applications. How we compute these.