AmmoSight

Arizona Elk 3014

Antlered elk in Unit 4B, rifle only, Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2026. 46% public land, mostly National Forest.

Your odds at 0 points · 2026 draw

7% Below the cut

about 1 in 13

You're 8 points below the 2026 cut of 8, which has risen from 7 to 8 points since 2023.

Years to draw on points: 10 yrs (7–14)

NR Tags
17
Applicants
65
Success
31%

First-choice nonresidents; nonresidents capped at 10%. Success: Archery-only bull, early hunters, 2025.

Points Needed to Draw, 2023–2026

points needed applicants per tag
7 8 8 you: 0 pts, below the chart ↓
2023
5:1
2025
4:1
2026
4:1

The cut has risen from 7 to 8 points since 2023. Applicants per tag: 5.3:1 in 2023, 3.8:1 in 2026.

Point creep: drew out at 7 → 8 → 8 points (2023–2026), +0.2 points/yr (range +0.0 to +0.5). Years to draw project that pace (the median of the last five draws, capped at 2 points/yr); the agency sets quotas and demand sets the cut.

What It Costs · 2026 NR Fees

Closes Feb 3 · 108 days
Cost to Apply
$175
If You Miss
$175
If You Draw
$825

The $15 nonresident hunt permit-tag application fee (per applicant, per species) is not refunded. The $160 nonresident Combination Hunt and Fish license (only NR license valid for the draw; valid 1 year from purchase) is not refunded. A bonus point only (application fee; no tag fee) is $15, bought separately. Drawing adds the $650 nonresident elk hunt permit-tag (charged only if drawn; booklet price $665 includes the $15 application fee).

Optional, not counted above: PointGuard (optional tag-surrender insurance, per species per applicant) $10 and PointGuard Plus (optional; all eligible species for three consecutive draw cycles) $25.

Opens
Jan 13, 2027
Closes
Feb 3, 2027
Results
about Feb 23
Point Only
$15, Jan 13 – Feb 3

Next application window: Open Jan 13 – Feb 3, 2027 (expected). Dates are last cycle's, rolled forward until Arizona Game & Fish Department publishes 2027.

▸ Every Fee, With Sources
Holbrook Snowflake Show Low Payson Flagstaff 4B
41%hunter success 2025 · 327 hunters, 134 elk
Unit 4B in full →

Details

Odds by Point Level · 2026 Draw

Points Chance Applied Drew
0 ← you 7% 13 0
1 14% 18 4
2 21% 8 1
3 27% 9 4
4 32% 3 1
5 37% 5 2
6 60% 5 0
7–16 100% — —

Expected weighted draw over the common pool, scaled to the nonresident cap. A dash means Arizona Game & Fish Department did not publish a count for that level.

Draw results: AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 19, retrieved Aug 31, 2026.

As a Lower Choice

2nd Choice
3%

Tags issued to lower choices ÷ lower-choice applicants, as published. Arizona draws lower choices with your points too, so this is an average across everyone who listed it lower: an applicant with more points than most does better.

How It Hunted, 2025

WhoHuntersHarvestSuccess
Archery-only bull, early 86 27 31%
Archery-only antlerless 16 3 19%
General bull · 14 licenses 13 8 62%
General bull · 171 licenses 134 47 35%
General antlerless 43 26 60%
Champ 13 11 85%
Limited opportunity any elk (zeniff hunt area; dry lake hunt area) (unit share) 22 12 55%
All of Unit 4B 327 134 41%

Adding up Arizona Game & Fish Department's published lines for Unit 4B gives 327 hunters and 134 elk taken in 2025, and 41% of them took an elk (sum of published weapon rows). The first rows are hunters holding this license type; the rest of the area's hunters held something else. Arizona's figures come from AZGFD's post-season hunter questionnaire - survey estimates carrying a 90% confidence interval and a return count, not a census of animals checked in. Source: AZGFD 2025 AZ Elk Harvest Summary; AZGFD 2024 AZ Elk Harvest Summary.

▸ Year-by-Year Numbers 3 draws

The standard draw for nonresidents, one row per year.

Year Tags Applicants Per Tag Points Needed Published Odds Source
2026 17 65 3.8 8 13% AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 19
2025 17 71 4.2 8 9% AZGFD 2025 M Draw Report, p. 19
2023 15 80 5.3 7 3% AZGFD 2023 M Draw Report, p. 11

Earlier Years, When This Number Was a Different Hunt

Arizona reassigns hunt numbers between years. In these years 3014 stood for another unit or weapon, so they are listed here rather than counted as this hunt's history or in its point-creep trend.

Year · What It Was Tags Applicants Per Tag Points Needed Source
2024 · Unit 4A 17 91 5.4 7 AZGFD 2024 M Draw Report, p. 15

Other Licenses Valid in Unit 4B

  • 3002 General Elk Sep 25 – Oct 1 · 1 tag · 157 applied <1% (small sample)
  • 3038 General Elk · Antlerless elk Nov 6–12 · 50 tags · 8 applied 5%
  • 3096 Champ Oct 9–15 · 15 tags · 7 applied 2%
  • 3130 Archery-Only Elk Sep 11–24 · 10 tags · cut 17 <1%
  • 3174 Archery-Only Elk · Antlerless elk Sep 11–24 · 25 tags · cut 0 100%

Odds at your points, nonresident. * fewer than 5 tags.

▸ Legal Cartridges 23 on file for Arizona elk
▸ Sources 16
  1. AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 19 · draw results, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  2. AZGFD 2025 M Draw Report, p. 19 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  3. AZGFD 2023 M Draw Report, p. 11 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  4. AZGFD 2026 Game and Fish Laws and Rules Book draw rules, fees, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  5. AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information fees, seasons, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  6. AZGFD 2025 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  7. AZGFD 2024 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  8. AZGFD 2023 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  9. AZGFD 2022 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  10. AZGFD 2021 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  11. AZGFD 2020 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  12. AZGFD 2019 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  13. AZGFD 2018 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  14. AZGFD 2017 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  15. AZGFD 2026 AZ Game and Fish Hunt Units boundary, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  16. Bureau of Land Management Arizona State Office with the Arizona State Land Department (Arizona Land Resources Information System, ALRIS) and Premier Data Services 2026 BLM AZ Surface Management Agency land ownership, retrieved Sep 1, 2026

About These Numbers

Odds are from the 2026 draw, the latest on file, computed from Arizona Game & Fish Department's published results (expected weighted draw over the common pool, scaled to the nonresident cap). They are what happened in that draw, not a forecast. Under five tags a percentage carries a *, because one applicant either way swings it. A dash means the agency did not publish the number, and a date marked expected is last cycle's schedule rolled forward.

Report an error on this page

Every report is checked against the agency source before we change anything.

We don't take applications: check Arizona Game & Fish Department's site and apply there.

Prior-draw odds from Arizona Game & Fish Department's results, not a forecast · All Arizona elk hunts