Arizona Elk 3016 — Unit 5B
GENERAL ELK | Bull elk | 5B
- What you may take
- GENERAL ELK | Bull elk | 5B (antlered)
- Weapon
- Rifle
- Season (2026)
- Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2026
- Tags (2026)
- 77
- for 466 first-choice applicants · nonresidents capped at 10%
- Hunter success here (2025)
- 46%
- of everyone who hunted the area
Showing nonresident results. Switch to resident
Odds by point level — 2026 draw
Prior-draw probability for a first-choice nonresident applicant. 77 tags, 466 first-choice applicants, drew out at 8 points. Source: 2026 M Draw Report · p. 20.
| Points | Your chance | Applicants | Drawn |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 90 | 4 |
| 1 | 5% | 91 | 6 |
| 2 | 8% | 51 | 2 |
| 3 | 10% | 50 | 5 |
| 4 | 13% | 44 | 3 |
| 5 | 15% | 47 | 6 |
| 6 | 17% | 33 | 7 |
| 7 | 23% | 23 | 4 |
| 8 | 100% | 24 | 17 |
| 9 | 100% | 7 | 14 |
| 10 | 100% | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | 100% | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | 100% | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| 15–20 | 100% same chance at every one of these levels | — | — |
| 21 | 100% | 0 | 0 |
Expected weighted draw over the common pool, scaled to the nonresident cap. A dash means Arizona Game & Fish Department did not publish a count for that level. How we compute these.
What it costs (2026 nonresident fees)
At the 2026 odds, expected cost per hunt-year ranges from $825 (enough points to draw) to $7,165.75 (lowest published odds).
Optional, not counted above: PointGuard (optional tag-surrender insurance, per species per applicant) $10 and PointGuard Plus (optional; all eligible species for three consecutive draw cycles) $25.
Not applying this year? A point-only purchase costs $15 (Jan 13 – Feb 3, expected) and keeps you moving toward the 8-point cut.
Next application window: opens Jan 13, closes Feb 3, 2027 (expected) · results ~February 23. Last cycle's schedule rolled forward — confirm when the agency publishes.
Point creep & years to draw
Drew out at 7 → 8 → 8 points (2023–2026): +0.2 points/yr (range +0.0 to +0.5). Projecting that pace forward:
| Your points now | Years until a sure thing |
|---|---|
| 0 | 11 yrs (8–16) |
| 1 | 10 yrs (7–14) |
| 2 | 8 yrs (6–12) |
| 3 | 7 yrs (5–10) |
| 4 | 6 yrs (4–8) |
| 5 | 4 yrs (3–6) |
| 6 | 3 yrs (2–4) |
| 7 | 2 yrs (1–2) |
| 8 | now |
A projection of the last five draws' median creep (capped at 2 points/yr), not a forecast. Random-pass odds still apply every year you're below the cut.
Seasons (2026)
How this tag has hunted
Across every license type in Unit 5B, Arizona Game & Fish Department counted 642 hunters and 298 elk taken in 2025 — 46% of them killed something. Full Unit 5B profile: maps, public land, five years of harvest →
Hunters holding this license type (2025) — the rest of the area's hunters held something else:
| What they hunted | Hunters | Harvest | Success | Days per animal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type General Bull | 619 | 284 | 46% | — |
| Type General Bull (Hopi) | 23 | 14 | 61% | — |
Arizona's figures come from AZGFD's post-season hunter questionnaire - survey estimates carrying a 90% confidence interval and a return count, not a census of animals checked in. Source: 2025 AZ Elk Harvest Summary 2024 AZ Elk Harvest Summary
As a lower choice
Tags issued to lower choices ÷ lower-choice applicants, as published. Points do not help a lower choice.
Year by year
The standard draw for nonresidents, one row per year.
| Year | Tags | Applicants | Applicants per tag | Points needed | Published odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77 | 466 | 6.1 | 8 | 6% | 2026 M Draw Report · p. 20 |
| 2025 | 77 | 462 | 6.0 | 8 | 5% | 2025 M Draw Report · p. 20 |
| 2023 | 67 | 425 | 6.3 | 7 | 4% | 2023 M Draw Report · p. 12 |
Earlier years, when this number was a different hunt
Arizona reassigns hunt numbers between years. In these years 3016 stood for another unit or weapon, so they are listed here rather than counted as this hunt's history or in its point-creep trend.
| Year · what it was | Tags | Applicants | Applicants per tag | Points needed | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 · Unit 5A | 33 | 195 | 5.9 | 7 | 2024 M Draw Report · p. 16 |
Other licenses valid in Unit 5B
Legal cartridges for elk in Arizona
From the Arizona hunting laws rules on file for a rifle. "Depends" means the rule turns on your specific load — check the state page.
Spot a data error on this page? Tell us.
How to read these numbers
Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.
Not an application service
This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.