AmmoSight

Arizona Elk 3023

Antlered elk in Unit 10, rifle only, Nov 27 – Dec 3, 2026. 39% public land, mostly State trust land.

Your odds at 0 points · 2026 draw

<1% Below the cut

about 1 in 121

You're 14 points below the 2026 cut of 14, which has risen from 12 to 14 points since 2023.

Years to draw on points: never at this creep

NR Tags
32
Applicants
509
Success
41%

First-choice nonresidents; nonresidents capped at 10%. Success: Archery-only bull, early hunters, 2025.

Points Needed to Draw, 2023–2026

points needed applicants per tag
12 12 14 you: 0 pts, below the chart ↓
2023
13:1
2025
15:1
2026
16:1

The cut has risen from 12 to 14 points since 2023. Applicants per tag: 13:1 in 2023, 16:1 in 2026.

Point creep: drew out at 12 → 12 → 14 points (2023–2026), +1.0 points/yr (range +0.0 to +2.0). Years to draw project that pace (the median of the last five draws, capped at 2 points/yr); the agency sets quotas and demand sets the cut.

What It Costs · 2026 NR Fees

Closes Feb 3 · 108 days
Cost to Apply
$175
If You Miss
$175
If You Draw
$825

The $15 nonresident hunt permit-tag application fee (per applicant, per species) is not refunded. The $160 nonresident Combination Hunt and Fish license (only NR license valid for the draw; valid 1 year from purchase) is not refunded. A bonus point only (application fee; no tag fee) is $15, bought separately. Drawing adds the $650 nonresident elk hunt permit-tag (charged only if drawn; booklet price $665 includes the $15 application fee).

Optional, not counted above: PointGuard (optional tag-surrender insurance, per species per applicant) $10 and PointGuard Plus (optional; all eligible species for three consecutive draw cycles) $25.

Opens
Jan 13, 2027
Closes
Feb 3, 2027
Results
about Feb 23
Point Only
$15, Jan 13 – Feb 3

Next application window: Open Jan 13 – Feb 3, 2027 (expected). Dates are last cycle's, rolled forward until Arizona Game & Fish Department publishes 2027.

▸ Every Fee, With Sources
Flagstaff Sedona Kingman 10
29%hunter success 2025 · 1,937 hunters, 570 elk
Unit 10 in full →

Details

Odds by Point Level · 2026 Draw

Points Chance Applied Drew
0 ← you <1% 108 0
1 2% 65 1
2 2% 89 2
3 3% 59 4
4 4% 38 3
5 5% 37 0
6 6% 31 1
7 6% 19 4
8 7% 13 0
9 8% 13 0
10 9% 5 0
11 9% 11 1
12 36% 7 0
13–21 100% 14 16

Expected weighted draw over the common pool, scaled to the nonresident cap. A dash means Arizona Game & Fish Department did not publish a count for that level.

Draw results: AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 21, retrieved Aug 31, 2026.

As a Lower Choice

2nd Choice
1%

Tags issued to lower choices ÷ lower-choice applicants, as published. Arizona draws lower choices with your points too, so this is an average across everyone who listed it lower: an applicant with more points than most does better.

How It Hunted, 2025

WhoHuntersHarvestSuccess
Archery-only bull, early 96 39 41%
Archery-only bull, late 16 5 31%
Archery-only antlerless 14 2 14%
General bull · 37 licenses 29 24 83%
General bull · 310 licenses 232 110 47%
General antlerless · 716 licenses 610 106 17%
General antlerless · 744 licenses 585 143 24%
Youth-only (general) 305 127 42%
Champ 11 4 36%
Muzzleloader bull 39 10 26%
All of Unit 10 1,937 570 29%

Adding up Arizona Game & Fish Department's published lines for Unit 10 gives 1,937 hunters and 570 elk taken in 2025, and 29% of them took an elk (sum of published weapon rows). The first rows are hunters holding this license type; the rest of the area's hunters held something else. Arizona's figures come from AZGFD's post-season hunter questionnaire - survey estimates carrying a 90% confidence interval and a return count, not a census of animals checked in. Source: AZGFD 2025 AZ Elk Harvest Summary; AZGFD 2024 AZ Elk Harvest Summary.

▸ Year-by-Year Numbers 3 draws

The standard draw for nonresidents, one row per year.

Year Tags Applicants Per Tag Points Needed Published Odds Source
2026 32 509 15.9 14 2% AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 21
2025 32 467 14.6 12 2% AZGFD 2025 M Draw Report, p. 21
2023 32 401 12.5 12 2% AZGFD 2023 M Draw Report, p. 12

Earlier Years, When This Number Was a Different Hunt

Arizona reassigns hunt numbers between years. In these years 3023 stood for another unit or weapon, so they are listed here rather than counted as this hunt's history or in its point-creep trend.

Year · What It Was Tags Applicants Per Tag Points Needed Source
2024 · Unit 9 25 309 12.4 11 AZGFD 2024 M Draw Report, p. 17

Other Licenses Valid in Unit 10

  • 3005 General Elk Sep 25 – Oct 1 · 4 tags · cut 31 <1% (small sample)
  • 3052 General Elk · Antlerless elk Oct 16–22 · 725 tags · 57 applied 49%
  • 3053 General Elk · Antlerless elk Dec 4–10 · 750 tags · cut 0 100%
  • 3070 Youth-Only (General) Elk (Arizona Hunter Education course required for youth ages 10–13)…Youth only Oct 2–11 · 350 tags · cut 3 42%
  • 3098 Champ Nov 6–12 · 15 tags · 13 applied 6%
  • 3107 Muzzleloader Elk Nov 6–12 · 6 tags · cut 19 <1%
  • 3141 Archery-Only Elk Sep 11–24 · 10 tags · cut 26 <1%
  • 3162 Archery-Only Elk Nov 13–26 · 2 tags · cut 20 1% (small sample)
  • 3183 Archery-Only Elk · Antlerless elk Nov 13–26 · 25 tags · cut 0 100%
  • 3194 Archery-Only · Antlerless elk Nov 17–30 · 25 tags · cut 0 100%

Odds at your points, nonresident. * fewer than 5 tags.

▸ Legal Cartridges 23 on file for Arizona elk
▸ Sources 16
  1. AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 21 · draw results, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  2. AZGFD 2025 M Draw Report, p. 21 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  3. AZGFD 2023 M Draw Report, p. 12 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  4. AZGFD 2026 Game and Fish Laws and Rules Book draw rules, fees, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  5. AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information fees, seasons, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
  6. AZGFD 2025 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  7. AZGFD 2024 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  8. AZGFD 2023 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  9. AZGFD 2022 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  10. AZGFD 2021 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  11. AZGFD 2020 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  12. AZGFD 2019 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  13. AZGFD 2018 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  14. AZGFD 2017 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  15. AZGFD 2026 AZ Game and Fish Hunt Units boundary, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
  16. Bureau of Land Management Arizona State Office with the Arizona State Land Department (Arizona Land Resources Information System, ALRIS) and Premier Data Services 2026 BLM AZ Surface Management Agency land ownership, retrieved Sep 1, 2026

About These Numbers

Odds are from the 2026 draw, the latest on file, computed from Arizona Game & Fish Department's published results (expected weighted draw over the common pool, scaled to the nonresident cap). They are what happened in that draw, not a forecast. Under five tags a percentage carries a *, because one applicant either way swings it. A dash means the agency did not publish the number, and a date marked expected is last cycle's schedule rolled forward.

Report an error on this page

Every report is checked against the agency source before we change anything.

We don't take applications: check Arizona Game & Fish Department's site and apply there.

Prior-draw odds from Arizona Game & Fish Department's results, not a forecast · All Arizona elk hunts