Arizona Deer 1016
Antlered deer in 12AW, rifle only, Nov 20–29, 2026. 100% public land, mostly National Forest.
Your odds at 0 points · 2026 draw
about 1 in 4,926
You're 28 points below the 2026 cut of 28, which has risen from 19 to 28 points since 2023.
Years to draw on points: never at this creep
- NR Tags
- 10
- Applicants
- 3,448
- Success
- 78%
First-choice nonresidents; nonresidents capped at 10%. Success: General · 322 licenses hunters, 2025.
Points Needed to Draw, 2023–2026
The cut has risen from 19 to 28 points since 2023. Applicants per tag: 29:1 in 2023, 345:1 in 2026.
Point creep: drew out at 19 → 27 → 21 → 28 points (2023–2026), +2.0 points/yr (range +0.0 to +2.0). Years to draw project that pace (the median of the last five draws, capped at 2 points/yr); the agency sets quotas and demand sets the cut.
What It Costs · 2026 NR Fees
Closes Jun 2 · 225 daysThe $15 nonresident hunt permit-tag application fee (per applicant, per species) is not refunded. The $160 nonresident Combination Hunt and Fish license (only NR license valid for the draw; valid 1 year from purchase) is not refunded. A bonus point only (application fee; no tag fee) is $15, bought separately. Drawing adds the $300 nonresident deer hunt permit-tag ($315 incl. $15 application fee).
Optional, not counted above: PointGuard (optional tag-surrender insurance, per species per applicant) $10 and PointGuard Plus (optional; all eligible species for three consecutive draw cycles) $25.
- Opens
- —
- Closes
- Jun 2, 2027
- Point Only
- $15
Next application window: Closes Jun 2, 2027 (expected). Dates are last cycle's, rolled forward until Arizona Game & Fish Department publishes 2027.
▸ Every Fee, With Sources
- Nonresident hunt permit-tag application fee (per applicant, per species) · paid at application $15 AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information
- Nonresident Combination Hunt and Fish license (only NR license valid for the draw; valid 1 year from purchase) · paid at application $160 AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information
- Bonus point only (application fee; no tag fee) · only for a point bought without applying — an unsuccessful applicant gets the point free $15 AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information
- Nonresident deer hunt permit-tag ($315 incl. $15 application fee) · paid if drawn $300 AZGFD 2026 Game and Fish Laws and Rules Book
Details
Odds by Point Level · 2026 Draw
| Points | Chance | Applied | Drew |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 ← you | <1% | 471 | 0 |
| 1 | <1% | 377 | 1 |
| 2 | <1% | 329 | 0 |
| 3 | <1% | 297 | 0 |
| 4 | <1% | 135 | 0 |
| 5 | <1% | 208 | 0 |
| 6 | <1% | 210 | 0 |
| 7 | <1% | 210 | 0 |
| 8 | <1% | 181 | 0 |
| 9 | <1% | 155 | 1 |
| 10 | <1% | 124 | 0 |
| 11 | <1% | 81 | 2 |
| 12 | <1% | 88 | 0 |
| 13 | <1% | 63 | 0 |
| 14 | <1% | 57 | 0 |
| 15 | <1% | 58 | 0 |
| 16 | <1% | 59 | 0 |
| 17 | <1% | 29 | 0 |
| 18 | <1% | 43 | 0 |
| 19 | <1% | 42 | 0 |
| 20 | <1% | 41 | 0 |
| 21 | <1% | 36 | 0 |
| 22 | <1% | 36 | 1 |
| 23 | <1% | 23 | 0 |
| 24 | <1% | 27 | 0 |
| 25 | <1% | 13 | 0 |
| 26 | <1% | 30 | 0 |
| 27 | <1% | 18 | 0 |
| 28 | 57% the cut | 7 | 3 |
| 29–31 | 100% same at every level | — | — |
Expected weighted draw over the common pool, scaled to the nonresident cap. A dash means Arizona Game & Fish Department did not publish a count for that level.
Draw results: AZGFD 2026 F Draw Report, p. 4, retrieved Aug 31, 2026.
As a Lower Choice
Tags issued to lower choices ÷ lower-choice applicants, as published. Arizona draws lower choices with your points too, so this is an average across everyone who listed it lower: an applicant with more points than most does better.
How It Hunted, 2025
| Who | Hunters | Harvest | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| General · 322 licenses | 286 | 222 | 78% |
| Mule deer (hunt 1 of 4) | — | 222 | — |
| General · 70 licenses | 62 | 51 | 82% |
| Mule deer (hunt 2 of 4) | — | 51 | — |
| Youth-only (general) | 59 | 49 | 83% |
| Mule deer (hunt 3 of 4) | — | 45 | — |
| White-tailed deer | — | 2 | — |
| Champ general | 8 | 6 | 75% |
| Mule deer (hunt 4 of 4) | — | 6 | — |
| All of 12AW · mule deer | — | 324 | — |
Adding up Arizona Game & Fish Department's published lines for 12AW gives 324 mule deer taken in 2025 (sum of published weapon rows; hunter counts not published). The first rows are hunters holding this license type; the rest of the area's hunters held something else. Arizona's figures come from AZGFD's post-season hunter questionnaire - survey estimates carrying a 90% confidence interval and a return count, not a census of animals checked in. Source: AZGFD 2025 AZ Deer Harvest Summary; AZGFD 2024 AZ Deer Harvest Summary.
▸ Year-by-Year Numbers 4 draws
The standard draw for nonresidents, one row per year.
| Year | Tags | Applicants | Per Tag | Points Needed | Published Odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 3,448 | 344.8 | 28 | <1% | AZGFD 2026 F Draw Report, p. 4 |
| 2025 | 35 | 812 | 23.2 | 21 | 1% | AZGFD 2025 Fall Draw Report, p. 4 |
| 2024 | 6 | 2,438 | 406.3 | 27 | <1% | AZGFD 2024 F Draw Report, p. 2 |
| 2023 | 30 | 873 | 29.1 | 19 | <1% | AZGFD 2023 F Draw Report, p. 3 |
Other Licenses Valid in 12AW
- 1015 General Deer Oct 23 – Nov 1 · 40 tags · cut 20 <1%
- 1154 Youth-Only (General) Deer · Antlerless deerYouth only Oct 9–12 · 100 tags · 41 applied 13%
- 1179 Champ Sep 18–24 · 1 tag · 16 applied <1% (small sample)
Odds at your points, nonresident. * fewer than 5 tags.
▸ Legal Cartridges 23 on file for Arizona deer
23 cartridges on file are legal for deer with a rifle in Arizona. Rules and sources: Arizona hunting laws.
▸ Sources 17
- AZGFD 2026 F Draw Report, p. 4 · draw results, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2025 Fall Draw Report, p. 4 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2024 F Draw Report, p. 2 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2023 F Draw Report, p. 3 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2026 Game and Fish Laws and Rules Book draw rules, fees, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information fees, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2026-2027 Hunting Regulations, p. 29 · seasons, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2025 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2024 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2023 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2022 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2021 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2020 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2019 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2018 AZ Deer Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2026 AZ Game and Fish Hunt Units boundary, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- Bureau of Land Management Arizona State Office with the Arizona State Land Department (Arizona Land Resources Information System, ALRIS) and Premier Data Services 2026 BLM AZ Surface Management Agency land ownership, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
About These Numbers
Odds are from the 2026 draw, the latest on file, computed from Arizona Game & Fish Department's published results (expected weighted draw over the common pool, scaled to the nonresident cap). They are what happened in that draw, not a forecast. Under five tags a percentage carries a *, because one applicant either way swings it. A dash means the agency did not publish the number, and a date marked expected is last cycle's schedule rolled forward.
Report an error on this page
We don't take applications: check Arizona Game & Fish Department's site and apply there.
Prior-draw odds from Arizona Game & Fish Department's results, not a forecast · All Arizona deer hunts