Oregon Elk 251M1
Antlerless elk, muzzleloader in Unit 51 — Sumpter, muzzleloader only, Aug 1 – Oct 15, 2026. 46% public land, mostly National Forest.
Your odds at 0 points · 2026 draw
55 tags (all residencies) for 2 nonresident first-choice applicants
16 first-choice applicants for 55 tags (all residencies) in 2026, but only 1 of the 2 nonresident first-choice applicants drew (nonresidents are capped at 5%).
Years to draw on points: now
- Tags
- 55
- Nonresident Applicants
- 2
- Success
- 17%
First-choice nonresidents; the tags are shared by every residency; nonresidents capped at 5%. Success: 251a n sumpter hunters, 2025.
Points Needed to Draw, 2022–2026
The cut has been 0 points every year since 2022. Applicants per tag: 0.7:1 in 2022, 0.3:1 in 2026.
The cut has been 0 points in each of the last 5 draws (2022–2026), so there is no creep to project.
What It Costs · 2026 NR Fees
Closes May 15 · 209 daysThe $10 controlled hunt application (per hunt series; also the Point Saver price) is not refunded. The $193 nonresident annual hunting license (required to apply) is not refunded. Drawing adds the $660 nonresident controlled elk tag (paid only if drawn; sale by June 20 to day before season).
- Opens
- Dec 1, 2026
- Closes
- May 15, 2027
- Results
- about Jun 12
Next application window: Open Dec 1, 2026 – May 15, 2027 (expected). Dates are last cycle's, rolled forward until Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife publishes 2027.
▸ Every Fee, With Sources
- Controlled hunt application (per hunt series; also the Point Saver price) · paid at application $10 ODFW 2026 OAR chapter 635 division 060
- Nonresident annual hunting license (required to apply) · paid at application $193 ODFW 2026 Recreational Fee Schedule
- Nonresident controlled elk tag (paid only if drawn; sale by June 20 to day before season) · paid if drawn $660 ODFW 2026 Recreational Fee Schedule
Details
Odds by Point Level · 2026 Draw
| Points | Chance | Applied | Drew |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 ← you | 100% same at every level | — | — |
Points pass + random pass, from published pools. A dash means Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife did not publish a count for that level. Oregon runs a second, random pass after the points pass. As a lower choice, 251M1 drew no one in 2026, so lower-choice odds are left out.
Draw results: ODFW 2026 Preference Point Draw Report, retrieved Aug 31, 2026.
How It Hunted, 2025
| Who | Hunters | Harvest | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 251a n sumpter | 569 | 94 | 17% |
| 251b1 s sumpter no. 1 | 84 | 28 | 33% |
| 251b2 s sumpter no. 2 | 114 | 50 | 44% |
| 251c s sumpter | 127 | 21 | 16% |
| 251d1 elkhorn mtn no. 1 | 17 | 3 | 20% |
| 251d2 elkhorn mtn no. 2 | 20 | 4 | 18% |
| 251t baker youth | 71 | 36 | 51% |
| Rocky mtn 2nd season | 316 | 18 | 6% |
| 200r oregon youth bow | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| 250r2 n fork traditional bow | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| 251r n sumpter bow | 414 | 66 | 16% |
| Eastern elk archery | 73 | 35 | 48% |
| 251m1 elkhorn no. 1 muzzleloader | 24 | 11 | 47% |
| 251m2 elkhorn no. 2 muzzleloader | 9 | 1 | 14% |
| All of Unit 51 | 1,847 | 367 | 20% |
Adding up Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife's published lines for Unit 51 gives 1,847 hunters and 367 elk taken in 2025, and 20% of them took an elk (sum of published weapon rows). The first rows are hunters holding this license type; the rest of the area's hunters held something else. Oregon requires every tag holder to report, but the numbers ODFW publishes are survey estimates expanded from the reporting rate — the agency's own tables are titled "Estimated harvest... based on Mandatory Harvest Survey Reports" — not a count of animals checked in. Source: ODFW 2025 Estimated Any Legal Weapon Elk Harvest…; ODFW 2025 Estimated Archery Elk Harvest by Zone.
▸ Year-by-Year Numbers 5 draws
The standard draw for nonresidents, one row per year. Oregon runs a second, random pass after the points pass; it is shown beside the year it belongs to.
| Year | Tags (All Res.) | Nonresident Applicants | Per Tag | Points Needed | Random Pass | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 | 49 tags | ODFW 2026 Preference Point Draw Report |
| 2025 | 55 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 49 tags | ODFW 2025 Preference Point Draw Report |
| 2024 | 55 | 1 | 0.6 | 0 | 40 tags | ODFW 2024 Preference Point Draw Report |
| 2023 | 55 | — | 0.5 | 0 | 49 tags | ODFW 2023 Preference Point Draw Report |
| 2022 | 55 | 1 | 0.7 | 0 | 36 tags | ODFW 2022 Preference Point Draw Report |
Other Licenses Valid in Unit 51
- 251A N Sumpter Oct 28 – Nov 1 · 825 tags · cut 1 39%
- 251B1 S Sumpter No. 1 Oct 28 – Nov 1 · 138 tags · cut 0 100%
- 251B2 S Sumpter No. 2 Nov 7–15 · 138 tags · cut 0 100%
- 251C S Sumpter Oct 17 – Dec 31 · 193 tags · cut 0 100%
- 251D1 Elkhorn Mtn No. 1 Oct 17–25 · 22 tags · cut 1 12%
- 251D2 Elkhorn Mtn No. 2 Nov 21–29 · 22 tags · cut 1 14%
- 251M2 Elkhorn No. 2 Muzzleloader Oct 16 – Dec 31 · 55 tags · cut 0 100%
- 251R N Sumpter Bow Aug 29 – Sep 27 · 583 tags · cut 0 100%
- 251T Baker YouthYouth only Aug 15 – Dec 31 · 100 tags · cut 1 31%
Odds at your points, nonresident. * fewer than 5 tags.
▸ Sources 24
- ODFW 2026 Preference Point Draw Report draw results, seasons, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- ODFW 2025 Preference Point Draw Report earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- ODFW 2024 Preference Point Draw Report earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- ODFW 2023 Preference Point Draw Report earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- ODFW 2022 Preference Point Draw Report earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- ODFW 2026 OAR chapter 635 division 060 draw rules, fees, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- ODFW 2026 Recreational Fee Schedule fees, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- ODFW 2025 Estimated Any Legal Weapon Elk Harvest… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2025 Estimated Archery Elk Harvest by Zone harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2025 Estimated Muzzleloader Elk Harvest by… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2024 Estimated Any Legal Weapon Elk Harvest… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2024 Estimated Archery Elk Harvest by Zone harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2024 Estimated Muzzleloader Elk Harvest by… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2023 Estimated Muzzleloader Elk Harvest by… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2023 Estimated Archery Elk Harvest by Zone harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2023 Estimated Any Legal Weapon Elk Harvest… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2022 Estimated Any Legal Weapon Elk Harvest… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2022 Estimated Archery Elk Harvest by Zone harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2022 Estimated Muzzleloader Elk Harvest by… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2021 Estimated Any Legal Weapon Elk Harvest… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2021 Estimated Archery Elk Harvest by Zone harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2021 Estimated Muzzleloader Elk Harvest by… harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- ODFW 2026 Wildlife Management Unit boundaries boundary, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- Bureau of Land Management, Oregon State Office 2026 BLM /Washington Land Status Ownership land ownership, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
About These Numbers
Odds are from the 2026 draw, the latest on file, computed from Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife's published results (points pass + random pass, from published pools). They are what happened in that draw, not a forecast. Under five tags a percentage carries a *, because one applicant either way swings it. A dash means the agency did not publish the number, and a date marked expected is last cycle's schedule rolled forward. How we compute these.
Report an error on this page
We don't take applications: check Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife's site and apply there.
Prior-draw odds from Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife's results, not a forecast · Methodology · All Oregon elk hunts