Arizona Elk 3184
Archery-Only Elk · Antlerless elk in Unit 11M, archery only, Sep 11–24, 2026. 74% public land, mostly National Forest.
Your odds at 0 points · 2026 draw
2 of 2 applicants at 0 points drew
You're 4 points below the 2026 cut of 4, which has fallen from 7 to 4 points since 2025.
Years to draw on points: —
- Tags
- 80
- Nonresident Applicants
- 7
- Success
- 49%
First-choice nonresidents; the tags are shared by every residency; nonresidents capped at 10%. Success: Archery-only bull, early · 76 licenses hunters, 2025.
Points Needed to Draw, 2025–2026
The cut has fallen from 7 to 4 points since 2025. Applicants per tag: 1.4:1 in 2025, 1.4:1 in 2026.
Insufficient history (2 of 3 draws) — a creep trend needs at least three draw years.
What It Costs · 2026 NR Fees
Closes Feb 3 · 108 daysThe $15 nonresident hunt permit-tag application fee (per applicant, per species) is not refunded. The $160 nonresident Combination Hunt and Fish license (only NR license valid for the draw; valid 1 year from purchase) is not refunded. A bonus point only (application fee; no tag fee) is $15, bought separately. Drawing adds the $650 nonresident elk hunt permit-tag (charged only if drawn; booklet price $665 includes the $15 application fee).
Optional, not counted above: PointGuard (optional tag-surrender insurance, per species per applicant) $10 and PointGuard Plus (optional; all eligible species for three consecutive draw cycles) $25.
- Opens
- Jan 13, 2027
- Closes
- Feb 3, 2027
- Results
- about Feb 23
- Point Only
- $15, Jan 13 – Feb 3
Next application window: Open Jan 13 – Feb 3, 2027 (expected). Dates are last cycle's, rolled forward until Arizona Game & Fish Department publishes 2027.
▸ Every Fee, With Sources
- Nonresident hunt permit-tag application fee (per applicant, per species) · paid at application $15 AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information
- Nonresident Combination Hunt and Fish license (only NR license valid for the draw; valid 1 year from purchase) · paid at application $160 AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information
- Bonus point only (application fee; no tag fee) · only for a point bought without applying — an unsuccessful applicant gets the point free $15 AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information
- Nonresident elk hunt permit-tag (charged only if drawn; booklet price $665 includes the $15 application fee) · paid if drawn $650 AZGFD 2026 Game and Fish Laws and Rules Book
Details
Odds by Point Level · 2026 Draw
| Points | Chance | Applied | Drew |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 ← you | 40% | 2 | 2 |
| 1 | 64% | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 79% | 3 | 2 |
| 3–8 | 100% same at every level | — | — |
| 9 | 100% | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | 100% | — | — |
Monte Carlo over published bonus-point pools. A dash means Arizona Game & Fish Department did not publish a count for that level.
Draw results: AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 57, retrieved Aug 31, 2026.
As a Lower Choice
Tags issued to lower choices ÷ lower-choice applicants, as published. Arizona draws lower choices with your points too, so this is an average across everyone who listed it lower: an applicant with more points than most does better.
How It Hunted, 2025
| Who | Hunters | Harvest | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| Archery-only bull, early · 76 licenses | 71 | 35 | 49% |
| Archery-only bull, early · 78 licenses | 78 | 15 | 19% |
| Archery-only antlerless · 79 licenses | 69 | 24 | 35% |
| Archery-only antlerless · 80 licenses | 77 | 15 | 19% |
| All of Unit 11M | 295 | 89 | 30% |
Adding up Arizona Game & Fish Department's published lines for Unit 11M gives 295 hunters and 89 elk taken in 2025, and 30% of them took an elk (sum of published weapon rows). The first rows are hunters holding this license type; the rest of the area's hunters held something else. Arizona's figures come from AZGFD's post-season hunter questionnaire - survey estimates carrying a 90% confidence interval and a return count, not a census of animals checked in. Source: AZGFD 2025 AZ Elk Harvest Summary; AZGFD 2024 AZ Elk Harvest Summary.
▸ Year-by-Year Numbers 2 draws
The standard draw for nonresidents, one row per year.
| Year | Tags (All Res.) | Nonresident Applicants | Per Tag | Points Needed | Published Odds | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 80 | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 50% | AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 57 |
| 2025 | 80 | 8 | 1.4 | 7 | 63% | AZGFD 2025 M Draw Report, p. 58 |
Earlier Years, When This Number Was a Different Hunt
Arizona reassigns hunt numbers between years. In these years 3184 stood for another unit or weapon, so they are listed here rather than counted as this hunt's history or in its point-creep trend.
| Year · What It Was | Tags | Applicants | Per Tag | Points Needed | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 · Unit 23 | 25 | 8 | 0.8 | 0 | AZGFD 2024 M Draw Report, p. 46 |
| 2023 · Unit 4A | 97 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | AZGFD 2023 M Draw Report, p. 34 |
Other Licenses Valid in Unit 11M
- 3142 Archery-Only Elk Sep 11–24 · 8 tags · cut 10 2%
- 3143 Archery-Only Elk Sep 25 – Oct 8 · 8 tags · cut 9 3%
- 3185 Archery-Only Elk · Antlerless elk Sep 25 – Oct 8 · 80 tags · 2 applied 100%
- 3195 Archery-Only · Antlerless elk Sep 15–28 · 80 tags · cut 5 45%
- 3196 Archery-Only · Antlerless elk Sep 29 – Oct 12 · 80 tags · 5 applied 100%
- 3204 Archery · Antlerless Elk Sep 23 – Oct 6 · no draw result on file —
Odds at your points, nonresident. * fewer than 5 tags.
▸ Sources 15
- AZGFD 2026 M Draw Report, p. 57 · draw results, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2025 M Draw Report, p. 58 · earlier draws, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2026 Game and Fish Laws and Rules Book draw rules, fees, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2026 Pronghorn and Elk Hunt Draw Information fees, seasons, retrieved Aug 31, 2026
- AZGFD 2025 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2024 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2023 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2022 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2021 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2020 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2019 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2018 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2017 AZ Elk Harvest Summary harvest, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- AZGFD 2026 AZ Game and Fish Hunt Units boundary, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
- Bureau of Land Management Arizona State Office with the Arizona State Land Department (Arizona Land Resources Information System, ALRIS) and Premier Data Services 2026 BLM AZ Surface Management Agency land ownership, retrieved Sep 1, 2026
About These Numbers
Odds are from the 2026 draw, the latest on file, computed from Arizona Game & Fish Department's published results (monte Carlo over published bonus-point pools). They are what happened in that draw, not a forecast. Under five tags a percentage carries a *, because one applicant either way swings it. A dash means the agency did not publish the number, and a date marked expected is last cycle's schedule rolled forward. How we compute these.
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We don't take applications: check Arizona Game & Fish Department's site and apply there.
Prior-draw odds from Arizona Game & Fish Department's results, not a forecast · Methodology · All Arizona elk hunts