Arizona Deer — Unit 21
Arizona Unit 21 covers 700,845 acres and lies 22 miles north of Cave Creek and 32 miles north of Scottsdale. 93% of it is public land, mostly national forest (78%) and BLM (11%). In 2025, 1,911 people hunted deer here and took 226 — 12% of them killed something. The 2026 draw put up 20 tags here for 15 first-choice applicants.
Your chance of drawing here
Every deer license type on offer in Unit 21, with the prior-draw chance for a first-choice nonresident applicant. Type your points in to see your own number.
Chances are from the 2026 draw (the most recent) for a first-choice nonresident. "Points needed" = the cut in the last draw.
Simple view Odds at every point level-
10% Point builder 0% as 2nd choice
-
29% Long shot 14% as 2nd choice
-
32% Long shot 0% as 2nd choice
-
1% Point builder 3% as 2nd choice
-
27% No first-choice applicants 8% as 2nd choice
| Hunt | Your odds (0 pts) | As 2nd choice | Points needed | Tags / applicants | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1035 ↗ GENERAL DEER | Antlered mule deer | 21 | 10% Point builder | 0% | — | 20 / 15 | Oct 30 – Nov 5, 2026 |
| 1079 ↗ GENERAL DEER | Antlered whitetail deer | 21 | 29% Long shot | 14% | 4 −1 since 2025 | 20 / 7 | Oct 23–29, 2026 |
| 1080 ↗ GENERAL DEER | Antlered whitetail deer | 21 | 32% Long shot | 0% | 5 +1 since 2023 | 20 / 10 | Nov 6–12, 2026 |
| 1081 ↗ GENERAL DEER | Antlered whitetail deer | 21 | 1% Point builder | 3% | — +8 since 2023 | 2 / 40 | Dec 11–31, 2026 |
| 1159 ↗ YOUTH-ONLY (GENERAL) DEER | Any antlered deer | 21 | 27% No first-choice applicants | 8% | — | 4 / 0 | Oct 2–8, 2026 |
What these columns mean
- Your odds —
- the share of applicants at your point level who drew this tag in the 2026 draw. Not a forecast: quotas and demand move every year.
- The badge —
- plain language for that number. Likely draw 75% or better · Real chance 40%+ · Long shot 15%+ · Point builder below that, so you are applying mainly to bank a point · Undersubscribed means fewer first-choice applicants than tags, so everyone who applied drew.
- As 2nd choice —
- Arizona lets you name more than one hunt on the application. Miss on your first choice and you go into the pot for whatever tags are left, alongside everyone else's second choices. Points never help a lower choice, so this number is the same whatever you have banked — it is usually worth naming a hunt that goes undersubscribed.
- Points needed —
- the lowest point total that still got a tag in the 2026 draw, and how that cut has moved since the earliest draw we hold.
- Tags / applicants —
- tags on offer and first-choice applicants for them, as the agency published them. Under five tags we print counts instead of a percentage, because one applicant either way swings it.
What it costs to apply (2026 nonresident fees)
| License | Up front | Gone if you miss | If you draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per application | $175 | $175 | $475 |
Application window: closes Jun 2, 2027 (expected). Full fee breakdown.
The country
Boundaries are drawn for orientation only — the written boundary description in the regulations governs.
Who owns the ground
- National Forest 546,766 ac · 78%
- BLM 78,499 ac · 11%
- Private 46,380 ac · 7%
- State trust land 28,873 ac · 4%
- Tribal 132 ac · 0%
- Other public 81 ac · 0%
- County or city land 59 ac · 0%
- State land 50 ac · 0%
How the hunting has gone
What Arizona Game & Fish Department publishes for this area after each season — harvest statistics for everyone who hunted it, not draw odds and not a forecast. Arizona Game & Fish Department publishes these per hunt rather than per unit; the rows below add its own figures together, since a hunter holds one tag for the species in a season. Arizona's figures come from AZGFD's post-season hunter questionnaire - survey estimates carrying a 90% confidence interval and a return count, not a census of animals checked in.
All deer
| Season | Hunters | Harvest | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1,911 | 226 | 12% |
| 2024 | 1,238 | 324 | 26% |
| 2023 | 1,467 | 350 | 24% |
| 2022 | 1,951 | 347 | 18% |
| 2021 | 1,954 | 323 | 17% |
| 2020 | 1,886 | 439 | 23% |
| 2019 | 1,864 | 401 | 22% |
| 2018 | 2,205 | 590 | 27% |
White-tailed Deer
| Season | Hunters | Harvest | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 154 | — |
| 2024 | — | 208 | — |
| 2023 | — | 228 | — |
| 2022 | — | 220 | — |
| 2021 | — | 265 | — |
| 2020 | — | 320 | — |
| 2019 | — | 282 | — |
| 2018 | — | 339 | — |
Mule Deer
| Season | Hunters | Harvest | Success |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | — | 70 | — |
| 2024 | — | 119 | — |
| 2023 | — | 122 | — |
| 2022 | — | 124 | — |
| 2021 | — | 58 | — |
| 2020 | — | 119 | — |
| 2019 | — | 119 | — |
| 2018 | — | 251 | — |
What people carried (2025 harvest)
- Firearm 368 · 82% · 642 hunters, 57% success
- Archery 82 · 18% · 1,269 hunters, 6% success
What the agency says about the area
Unit 21 – Beginning on I-17 at the Verde River; southerly on the southbound lane of I-17 to the New River Rd. (Exit 232); east on New River Rd. to Fig Springs Rd.; northeasterly on Fig Springs Rd. to Mingus Rd.; Mingus Rd. to the Tonto National Forest boundary; southeasterly along this boundary to the Verde River; north along the Verde River to I-17.
Boundary: AZ Game and Fish Hunt Units (AZGFD ArcGIS feature service, layer 0)
Harvest: 2025 AZ Deer Harvest Summary (draw hunts only)
Harvest: 2025 AZ Over-the-Counter Archery Deer Harvest Summary