Oregon Elk 200M — 200M
Cascade Muzzleloader
- What you may take
- Cascade Muzzleloader (any)
- Weapon
- Muzzleloader
- Where
- —
- Season (2026)
- Nov 21–27, 2026
- Tags (2026)
- 1,621
- for 4 first-choice applicants · nonresidents capped at 5%
Showing nonresident results. Switch to resident
Odds by point level — 2026 draw
Prior-draw probability for a first-choice nonresident applicant. 743 tags, 4 first-choice applicants, drew out at 1 points. Source: ODFW 2026 Preference Point Draw... · row 2.
| Points | Your chance | Applicants | Drawn |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 4 | 0 |
| 1–10 | 100% same chance at every one of these levels | — | — |
Points pass + random pass, from published pools. A dash means Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife did not publish a count for that level. How we compute these.
What it costs (2026 nonresident fees)
At the 2026 odds, expected cost per hunt-year ranges from $863 (enough points to draw) .
Next application window: opens Dec 1, closes May 15, 2027 (expected) · results ~June 12. Last cycle's schedule rolled forward — confirm when the agency publishes.
Point creep & years to draw
Drew out at 2 → 1 → 1 → 1 → 1 points (2022–2026): no creep — drew at 1 points each year. Projecting that pace forward:
| Your points now | Years until a sure thing |
|---|---|
| 0 | 1 yr |
| 1 | now |
A projection of the last five draws' median creep (capped at 2 points/yr), not a forecast. Random-pass odds still apply every year you're below the cut.
Seasons (2026)
Year by year
The standard draw for nonresidents, one row per year. Oregon runs a second, random pass after the points pass; it is shown beside the year it belongs to.
| Year | Tags | Applicants | Applicants per tag | Points needed | Random pass | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1,621 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 878 tags | ODFW 2026 Preference Point Draw... · row 2 |
| 2025 | 1,625 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 882 tags | ODFW 2025 Preference Point Draw... · row 2 |
| 2024 | 1,591 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 848 tags | ODFW 2024 Preference Point Draw... · row 5 |
| 2023 | 1,604 | 11 | 0.0 | 1 | 861 tags | ODFW 2023 Preference Point Draw... · row 4 |
| 2022 | 1,447 | 9 | 0.0 | 2 | 772 tags | ODFW 2022 Preference Point Draw... · row 4 |
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How to read these numbers
Every percentage on this page is a prior-draw probability: the chance an applicant with that many points would have drawn in the draw year shown, computed from the agency's published results. It is not a forecast — quotas, applicant numbers, and point creep change every year. Every figure links to the agency document it came from. Where a state does not publish a number, we show a dash, never a zero. Hunts with fewer than five tags show counts instead of percentages. Fees show the fee year used. Read the methodology for the engine details.
Not an application service
This page is informational only. Draw rules, quotas, fees, and deadlines are set by the state agency and change by commission action — confirm everything on the agency's own site before you apply, and apply through the agency, not here. We disclaim all liability for reliance on this page.